A total of 22 local councils have had their majorities effectively decided before the votes even arrive at people’s houses owing to one of the two major parties not having enough candidates to contest for a majority themselves.
The Labour Party is guaranteed a majority in no less than 18 local councils as their Nationalist Party counterparts have not fielded enough candidates to win a majority, while the Nationalist Party is guaranteed a majority in 4 local councils because the Labour Party did not field enough candidates to achieve a majority there.
This is not an unheard of phenomenon: the major parties sometimes find it difficult to field enough candidates in towns which traditionally lean heavily against them, and this is the case for the upcoming local council elections as well.
The Labour Party is guaranteed majorities in the local councils of Vittoriosa, Cospicua, Dingli, Fgura, Ghaxaq, Kalkara, Kirkop, Luqa, Marsa, Qormi, Sannat, Senglea, Ta’ Xbiex, Tarxien, Xghajra, Zabbar, Zejtun, and Zurrieq.
These are all traditionally heavily Labour-leaning towns and villages, and the PL had guaranteed majorities in 16 out of those 18 localities coming into the 2019 local council elections as well.
Only in Tarxien and Marsa, where the PN is fielding one fewer candidate when compared to 2019 (3 candidates for a council of 7 in Tarxien, and 2 candidates for a council of 5 in Marsa), were majorities not guaranteed for the PL back in 2019.
In the 2019 election, the PL was guaranteed a majority in 21 local councils from the onset. This year, while the PN still hasn’t fielded enough to win a majority in Birzebbuga, Marsascala, Marsaxlokk, and Xewkija, the presence of ADPD candidates or independent candidates means that the PL is not guaranteed a majority in these localities, although it is still exceedingly likely given the voting history of each locality.
Interesting to note is the Gozitan village of Xaghra: in 2019 the PN fielded only two candidates here, meaning that the PL was guaranteed to have a majority in what is a local council made up of five councillors.
This year, however, the PN is actually fielding more candidates (7) than the PL is (6), with former MP Kevin Cutajar and local celebrity chef Peter Dacoutros among those on the ballot sheet. The PL had won 66% of the votes here in 2019.
The PN meanwhile are guaranteed majorities in 4 local councils, all of which are traditionally very Nationalist-leaning localities. These are Attard, Sliema, Swieqi, and Mdina.
There will be no election taking place at all in Mdina, as exactly five candidates – four for the PN and one for the PL – submitted their nominations: five being the number of councillors needed to make up the local council.
The PN was guaranteed majorities in these localities in the run-up to the 2019 elections as well, and was also guaranteed a majority back then in the Nationalist-leaning village of Balzan. This time, however, the PL has fielded three candidates in this locality meaning that it can technically achieve a majority in the five-person council should the locality’s voters decree as such.
The PN had a weak local elections campaign in 2019, with the PL scoring a huge majority of 47,116 votes over their counterparts across all localities. This was 4,460 votes more than the majority that the PL achieved over the PN in that year’s MEP elections which took place over the same weekend.
The result saw the PN lose some significant local councils, such as Siggiewi, which it lost for the first time, Valletta, St Paul’s Bay, Mosta, and San Gwann – losses which the party will no doubt be hoping to reverse, but also councils which the PL will no doubt be hoping to retain.