It might be true that we get more than our daily fill of Iraqi news, when we repeatedly hear about the ever-growing daily death toll during local and foreign news bulletins, but how many of us are really aware of what is actually happening on the ground in Iraq?

What are the current threats that the country is facing?

What are its future prospects?

What solutions exist, if any?

I have read more than a fair measure of books about the aftermath of the war, the occupation itself and the resultant scenario since then. I have been briefed by diplomats who on one side justified the occupation while others – including those from the Western camp – have privately expressed their concern about the way in which things have been spinning out of control.

But there is no doubt that the best study I have recently come across on the situation in Iraq is Accepting Realities In Iraq, which Chatham House have just published as part of their Middle East Programme Briefing Papers. In recent years I have met some of their leading analysts on the Middle East, including Palestine and Lebanon as well as Turkey specialists. The independent body responsible for this serious and objective report is none other than the highly influential Royal Institute of International Affairs.

I will not bother you with the details but some of the summary conclusions call for deep thought and reflection:

• There is not “a” civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies involving a number of communities and organisations struggling for power. The surge is not curbing the high level of violence, and improvements in security cannot happen in a matter of months;

• Iraq has fractured into regional power bases, since political, security and economic power has devolved to local sectarian, ethnic or tribal political groupings;

• The conflicts have become internalised between Iraqis as the polarisation of sectarian and ethnic identities reaches ever deeper into Iraqi society and causes the breakdown of social cohesion.

• These current harsh realities need to be accepted if new strategies are to have any chance of preventing the failure and collapse of Iraq.

• A political solution will require engagement with organisations possessing popular legitimacy.

• Some analysts contend that the level of violence in Iraq has, in fact, declined, particularly since the onset of the US-led military surge designed to improve the security situation in Baghdad. However, if numbers of bomb attacks can be used as an indicator, then it can reasonably be assumed that the security situation remains as perilous as before the surge.

• It is time for a full appraisal of the realities in Iraq. On current evidence these realities are very disturbing and it can no longer be assumed that Iraq will ultimately survive as a united entity.

• The four years since the removal of Saddam’s regime have been deeply unsuccessful for the Multinational Force in Iraq and the new Iraqi government.

• Iraq’s attempted transition from dictatorship to democracy has been harrowing, and multi-faceted violence appears likely to continue and intensify.

• Analytical failures by major external powers have led to the pursuit of strategies that suit ideal depictions of how Iraq should look, but are often unrepresentative of the current situation.

• The social fabric of Iraq has been torn apart.

• The Iraqi government is not able to exert authority evenly or effectively over the country.

• Failure in Iraq would undermine the US claim to be the main power broker in the Middle East region.

• While the Bush administration is still clinging to the hope that the situation in Iraq can be turned around, the tasks that lie ahead do not inspire great optimism.

• Between the summer of 2006 and the end of the year, violence in Iraq reached appallingly high new levels.

• Mutqada al-Sadr cannot be ignored. If the US and the UK wish to maintain Shi’a moderation in the face of devastating terrorist attacks, then the Sadr movement needs to be recognised as a key and enduring feature of Iraq’s political landscape which should be brought further into the political process.

• The cumulative effect of bomb attacks, kidnappings, killings, threats and intimidation has unravelled the fragile ties that held society together, resulting in displaced populations.

• Iraq has already, in effect, become regionalised.

• Sunnis tend to view federalism as a Kurdish mechanism to achieve secession from Iraq.

• The continuation of instability in Iraq is not necessarily contrary to the interests of major neighbouring states.

• The most capable foreign power in Iraq, in terms of influencing events, is not the US. It is Iran.

• From Iran’s geopolitical perspective, Iraq, and particularly southern Iraq, is its “backyard”.

• The Iranian government can now use events in Iraq to weaken the US resolve, at least in terms of domestic public opinion, to target Iran directly.

• It is a matter of concern for Arab Sunni states that the former bastion of Arab nationalism, Iraq, is now firmly in the hands of the Shi’a, and that the most influential foreign state in the country is Iran.

• It would be a mistake to believe that the political forces in Iraq are weak and can be reorganised, perhaps by the US, or perhaps by the international community.

• In pursuing military force in the form of surges, external players cannot deliver the critical political accommodation.

• The solution to Iraq is to be found inside Iraq itself.

Never has so much been said on the situation in Iraq in so few words.

I have deliberately left the report’s concluding paragraph for the end because it is perhaps the most telling and the one that offers deepest insight:

“Devising US or regional solutions according to the players’ own interests, and imposing them upon Iraq, has been tried and has only served to destabilise the situation further….”

Need one add more? Yes I think one should!

Meanwhile, Tony Blair insisted that good progress was being made in bringing stability to the country, while a meeting of foreign ministers representing Muslim countries called on international troops to pull out of Iraq as soon as possible.

On the other hand Iraqis have already defined progress with their feet – considering that some two million have left or fled their country (with 1.2m refugees in Syria alone) and the number of displaced Iraqis still inside that country’s borders being given as 1.9 million!

US ambassador’s

meeting with foreign affairs committee

It is true that most Foreign and European Affairs Committee meetings are hardly ever attended or covered by the local media. But what intrigued me was that when the US Ambassador recently delivered a highly interesting presentation – obviously from a US government perspective – and also offered candid, unscripted replies to the various questions that we posed, ranging from Iran and Syria to Palestine and Israel, as well as the new US benchmarks plan in the Middle East, although a local daily newspaper covered the event courtesy of one of their finest reporters, nothing ended up in print.

Many have been asking why? Some have speculated that this could have been deliberately intended to save the government some embarrassment after a Nationalist MP (Dr Michael Asciaq MD) asked the Ambassador whether, with the introduction of biometric passports, data regarding Maltese nationals could easily end up in CIA data banks.

I hope that I am mistaken and that no control freaks have been exercising their influence from behind the scenes.

It would be interesting to find out the true reason behind such a decision not to report a meeting for which a leading journalist was present throughout. And who was really behind it!

Bobby…Solo

Judging by the media reports we have read in recent days, we cannot be blamed for concluding that the Notte Gozitana was a runaway success. Were it not for maltastar.com, nobody would have learnt or realised that the much advertised concert by Bobby Solo did not even take place.

This was apparently because the ageing star chose not to turn up for reasons as yet unknown, although this is being attributed to the poor bookings for the concert. Given that two key ministries were involved in organising this event, the Tourism Ministry and the Gozo Ministry, it would be in the public interest to find out what really happened – why the concert was cancelled or postponed, how many tickets had been bought and how many complimentary tickets had been dished out to “friends”.

Good thing that, although I was in Gozo for the weekend, I chose to stay away – far from the madding crowd!

If the Nationalists and their bedfellows even try to hide such a minor mishap, no wonder pro-government media management is the order of the day on other far more serious and important issues.

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Leo Brincat is the opposition spokesman for foreign affairs and IT.