Recent political developments, notably the government’s insistence on presenting the budget next month, indicate that the possibility of having a general election by the end of the year are very remote, even if PN backbencher Franco Debono brings down the government by voting against the budget.
During the House Business Committee meeting held last Thursday, the leader of the House, Tonio Borg, excluded categorically that the budget would be presented this month. However he did not hint whether the budget will be presented in the first or second week of November.
Given that the budget is normally presented on a Monday, the first possible date is 5 November. This would imply that the leader of the opposition makes his reply a week later on 12 November, with the Prime Minister doing the winding up speech on Wednesday 14 November.
The defining moment will be at the end of the sitting, when a motion authorising Parliament to go into a committee of provision to debate the financial estimates of 2013 will be put to the vote. Last year this motion was approved with 35 votes in favour and only 33 votes against, due to the conspicuous absence Labour MP Chris Cardona.
If Franco Debono sticks to his word and votes against, this would effectively spell the end of this administration, as the government would have lost a confidence vote. In such cases the prime minister is constitutionally obliged to dissolve parliament and call an election within three days.
This would mean that the earliest date for a general election would be Saturday 22 December. The prospect of having the country deeply immersed in victory celebrations and carcading on Christmas Eve is very unlikely as it would deal a huge blow to the entertainment industry, apart from other considerations.
And for those superstitious enough to believe the Mayan calendar prophecy, such an event would be superfluous as the world will come to an end on this particular day.
Another option for the government is to present the budget on 12 November. All things being equal, the only available date for a general election would be the 29 of December, which yet again is not a realistic option for obvious reasons.
This means that the Gonzi-led administration is likely to survive the whole of this year, which is something that only the bravest would have bet on, at the turn of this year. On the other hand after having survived so far, it is hard to envisage how the government will survive beyond the end of next month.
Most probably by Christmas, a caretaker government will be in place, with the country going to the polls towards the end of January or the beginning of February. For the very first time since 1987, both parties are thus gearing for a long campaign rather than the minimum six weeks which was the norm at every general election since 1992. Indeed, some would argue that the possibility of an election towards the end of January would be a safe bet.