Joseph Farrugia 'il-Farell' may be returning to parliament after a 16-year absence following the resignation of Karmenu Vella, if last year's general election results are any indication.

But his success in the upcoming casual election is far from certain: among others, another former MP - retired surgeon Anthony Zammit - may claim Mr Vella's seat instead.

After a 38-year parliamentary career, Mr Vella resigned his seat last Monday to become the European Commissioner for the Environment, Maritime Affairs, and Fisheries, making him the third MP to resign from parliament during this legislature.

The first was former Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi, who resigned his seat last year after Simon Busuttil was elected to succeed him as PN leader: his seat was won by Antoine Borg. Next to go was Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca, who resigned to become President, paving the way for former PL deputy leader Charles Mangion's return to parliament.

This time round, six Labour candidates are eligible to participate in the casual election for Mr Vella's seat - apart from Mr Farrugia and Mr Zammit, the list includes public health inspector Robert Henry Bugeja, Marsascala mayor Mario Calleja, Marsaxlokk mayor Edric Micallef and entrepreneur Marion Mizzi.

Mr Vella was comfortably elected with 5,231 first-count votes, considerably above the quota of 4,035. It is these 4,035 votes that will determine Mr Vella's successor.

Whatever votes candidates may have obtained during the general election are not taken into consideration, but they do provide an indication of candidates' relative performance.

Among the six who may contest the casual election, Mr Farrugia had obtained the highest number of first-count votes - 1,004 - followed by Mr Calleja (669) and Mr Zammit (385).

But the casual election that followed Dr Gonzi's resignation provides clear evidence that there is no guarantee that the candidate who had the best performance at the general election would win the casual election. Mr Borg, who went on to win that election, had only obtained the fourth-highest number of first-count votes among those who contested.

Since Mr Vella easily surpassed the quota, another indication of what the result may be can be seen through the way his excess votes were inherited.

Among the six unsuccessful candidates, Mr Zammit (photo, left) actually inherited the most votes (85): Mr Farrugia was a close second with 77, while Mr Calleja (photo, right) was a distant third with 31.

However, this overlooks the fact that a far larger number of votes went to elected candidates. MPs Marlene Farrugia and Edward Scicluna both inherited 266 votes; Joseph Sammut inherited 210 whereas Foreign Minister George Vella, who was unsuccessful in this district, inherited 146.

It is likely, therefore, that the majority of those who voted for Mr Vella gave their second preference to candidates which ended up making it to parliament; how they went on to vote is anyone's guess.

One other factor, however, may tilt the favour in Mr Farrugia's balance: both he and Mr Vella hail from Żurrieq, the largest locality by population in the fifth electoral district. The only other two Labour candidates hailing from Żurrieq are Dr Farrugia and Dr Sammut, who were both elected.

Mr Farrugia, who owns the Żurrieq-based Farell Bathrooms, had been elected to parliament in 1996 when the Labour Party led by Alfred Sant won the general election, but lost his seat when the Nationalist Party returned to power two years later and was unsuccessful in every other successive general election.

But a strong result by the party - which led it to win a fourth seat in his district - and Mr Vella's resignation may well see him make a comeback.