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iSurvey: Is the government gaining ground?

John Cordina Sunday, 21 December 2014, 11:00 Last update: about 10 years ago

Nearly three-fifths of respondents in the December edition of the iSurvey rate the government's performance positively, and less than a quarter delivered an outright negative assessment.

The survey shows that 59.7 per cent believe that the government is doing a good job overall, compared to 51.7 per cent who thought so in the May survey, carried out before the European Parliament elections.

Correspondingly, the proportion of people who believe that the government is doing badly has fallen from 27.7 per cent to 23.7 per cent, while the number of those who are uncertain increased from 16.7 per cent to 20.7 per cent.

As in past editions of the iSurvey, a sample of 300 people, representative of age and gender and with a spread of localities, were surveyed by Business Leaders Malta on behalf of The Malta Independent on Sunday.

However, there is no way to ensure that the sample reflects the population's political leanings, and the sample for the December iSurvey does have a somewhat higher proportion of Labour voters when compared to Nationalist Party voters, which can obviously have an impact on results. Complicating matters further is a higher-than-average proportion of people who refused to declare which party they voted for in last year's general election.

But while this may have an effect on the final result, breaking down the figures still indicates that the government may be on an upward trend.

The proportion of Labour voters who rate the government positively has actually fallen slightly since May, although it still remains considerably high: from 88.2 per cent to 85.8 per cent. The proportion of disapproving Labour voters correspondingly increased from 4.2 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

Curiously, however, the opposite appears to be true among Nationalist Party voters, if the survey is any indication, even though most, unsurprisingly, still disapprove of the government.

But while 62.3 per cent of PN voters gave the government a thumbs-down last May, just 57.4 per cent of declared PN voters who took part in the December survey did the same. The proportion of approving PN voters, meanwhile, increased from 17 per cent to 23.5 per cent, a steeper increase than the corresponding drop in support from declared Labour voters.

 

Mixed results for Opposition

Respondents were also asked to assess the performance of the Nationalist Party in Opposition, but when compared to last May, the results are open to interpretation.

The proportion who delivered a positive assessment increased marginally, from 28.7 per cent to 29 per cent. But as the proportion of non-committal respondents fell from 30.3 per cent to 20 per cent, the proportion of those who delivered a negative assessment increased from 41 to 51 per cent.

Of course, the higher relative proportion of Labour voters in this month's survey sample would have had an impact, as the vast majority of them gave the PN in Opposition the thumbs-down.

But interestingly enough, declared Labour voters and PN voters alike were more positive about the Opposition this time round.

While the proportion of Labour voters who delivered a negative assessment remained practically unchanged since May - from 74.8 per cent to 74.6 per cent - the proportion of those who now view the Opposition positively has more than doubled, from five per cent to 11.9 per cent.

Similar trends were witnessed in the PN camp, where a practically identical minority - 14.7 per cent compared to 15.1 per cent in May - continued to rate the Opposition negatively. On the other hand, however, the proportion of PN voters who viewed the party's performance in Opposition favourably increased from 59.4 per cent to 70.6 per cent.

 

Prime Minister still deemed more trustworthy

As was the case last May, respondents were asked who they trusted most, Dr Muscat or Dr Busuttil; they were also asked to state how much they trusted either leader on a 10-point scale.

Once more, Dr Muscat comes out on top: 57.9 per cent said that they trusted him over Dr Busuttil, who was only deemed more trustworthy by 25.4 per cent. A further 16.7 per cent of respondents said that they trusted neither politician.

On a scale from one to 10, Dr Muscat received an average trust rating of 6.55, while Dr Busuttil's average score was only 4.54.

Once more, the relatively high proportion of Labour voters included in the sample is bound to have had an impact on the final results.

But even when the answers of those who declared that they voted for the PN and the PL are taken into account, the results suggest that the situation has shifted in Dr Muscat's favour since last May.

Labour voters are now even more likely to state that they trust Dr Muscat more - 94 per cent did, compared to 86.6 per cent in May, and their assessment of his trustworthiness has improved, raising his average trust rating from 8.26 to 8.59. Their assessment of Dr Busuttil correspondingly worsened, albeit slightly, from an average score of 2.98 to 2.93.

But PN voters did not respond in kind, even though their assessment of Dr Muscat did deteriorate: their average trust rating of the Prime Minister fell from 3.26 to 3.18. But curiously, so did their assessment of Dr Busuttil, whose average score among PN voters fell from 7.41 to 6.82.

On the other hand, a slightly higher proportion of PN voters now deem Dr Busuttil more trustworthy: 79.1 per cent said that he was, compared to 77.4 per cent in May.

 

Muscat now most popular member of Cabinet

Other members of his Cabinet may have overshadowed him in past editions of the iSurvey, but Prime Minister Joseph Muscat is now deemed to be the best-performing minister or parliamentary secretary.

Of course, the survey cannot indicate whether the result is due to Dr Muscat's profile rising, or whether it is due to his ministers' star waning. But he was a fair distance away from the top spot in the two previous editions of the iSurvey held earlier this year.

In the March edition of the survey, held when it was known that Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca was going to be the next President, she ended up outperforming her colleagues easily, earning a mention by a staggering 53.9 per cent of committal respondents.

In the next edition, which was held in May, the one who made the strongest gains in her absence was Health and Energy Minister Konrad Mizzi, who was mentioned by 52.3 per cent.

This time round, no minister has managed to score nearly as high. However, Dr Muscat is leading the way with a comfortable margin, being deemed the best-performing member of Cabinet by 29 per cent of respondents.

Those who had voted for the Labour Party in the last general election were most likely to choose the party's leader, as 31.3 per cent did so, compared to 19.1 per cent of Nationalist Party voters. However, Dr Muscat was still the most popular choice with PN voters.

Dr Mizzi retains second place, but this time round he was only named as the best-performing minister by 15 per cent of respondents. The energy minister is also the biggest source of disagreement between PL and PN voters: while 25.4 per cent of the former deem him to be the best performer, only 2.9 per cent of the latter do.

Justice Minister Owen Bonnici is in third place, named as the best-performing minister by eight per cent of respondents, followed by Education Minister Evarist Bartolo with 5.3 per cent. With the vote of five per cent of respondents, Parliamentary Secretary for Health Chris Fearne obtained the best result among junior ministers.

Civil Liberties Minister Helena Dalli is ranked sixth, with 4.3 per cent. Despite the controversy surrounding the work at a Żejtun property she owned, Dr Dalli was actually more likely to be named by PN supporters.

Although - or perhaps, because - new Home Affairs Minister Carmelo Abela only took up the post this month, he achieved a respectable seventh place, with 3.7 per cent, the same proportion which named Social Solidarity Minister Michael Farrugia.

Curiously, the soft-spoken minister, who took the post after Manuel Mallia was removed in the wake of the Gżira shooting involving his driver, was ranked second by PN voters: 10.3 per cent of them specifically mentioned him.

In contrast to past editions of the iSurvey, all 23 ministers and parliamentary secretaries earned mentions this time round. But the ones at the bottom of the list suggest that few people think too highly of the government's environmental credentials.

In fact, Environment Minister Leo Brincat only earned one mention among the 300 survey respondents, as did the parliamentary secretary in his ministry, Roderick Galdes. The Parliamentary Secretary for Planning, Michael Falzon, was only named twice.

Perhaps reflecting the surprisingly low profile he keeps despite being Malta's Deputy Prime Minister, Louis Grech fared little better, being mentioned by just one per cent of respondents.

The Labour Party's decision to choose Mr Grech as its deputy leader after the unceremonious removal of Anġlu Farrugia in late 2012, had been interpreted as a way to increase the party's appeal to traditional PN voters, and the survey results may back such an interpretation: curiously, all those who thought he was the best-performing minister voted for the PN last year.

 

 

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