Local council elections are often seen as a measure of the performance of both the government and Opposition, but the vast majority of respondents to a survey commissioned by The Malta Independent are adamant that their vote is based on issues related to their locality.
The April 2015 edition of the iSurvey, carried out by Business Leaders Malta on behalf of The Malta Independent, asked over 300 respondents a number of questions concerning the upcoming local council elections.
Respondents were not asked how they will vote - a far larger sample size would be required to poll 34 separate local elections, rendering the exercise somewhat unfeasible - but they were asked whether they would vote, and what they will base their vote upon.
As it turns out, the vast majority - 78.2 per cent to be exact - of those who will be voting in the next local council elections said that they will be basing their vote on local, rather than national, issues.
There is little difference between those who voted for the Labour Party and those who voted for the Nationalist Party in the 2013 general election, although curiously, both were less likely to base their vote on local issues when compared to those who voted for other parties, were ineligible to vote back then, or refused to state who they voted for. While 75.4 per cent of Labour voters are set to base their vote on issues related to their locality, 71.9 per cent of PN voters are set to do the same.
The difference between men and women is also minimal - 80 per cent of men and 76.6 per cent of women said that they will be basing their vote on local issues - and there is relatively little difference across age groups. Those aged 45-59 are most likely to base their vote on local issues (86.4 per cent), followed by those aged 16-24 (80 per cent); on the other hand, those in the 35-44 age bracket are most likely to base their vote on national issues, although even then, only 28.6 per cent of respondents said that these would determine their vote.
What the results suggest is that ultimately, what the government and Opposition do on a national stage is secondary to what their councillors get up to in each locality, even though the local council election campaigns of both the Labour and Nationalist parties have seen them focus primarily on national issues.
However, this does not mean that partisan considerations do not come into play when people vote in local elections. After all, people might still be inclined to believe that "their" party's councillors are doing a good job and that other councillors are not faring as well.
A more detailed analysis of the issues that are set to influence voters in the upcoming local council elections will be published in tomorrow's edition of The Malta Independent.
Turnout set to be close to 2012 record low
The fact that the local council elections are being held on the same day as the referendum on spring hunting should help boost turnout for both: many people who would have turned up to vote in one election but not the other are likely to end up voting for both.
This is clearly apparent when the last two rounds of local elections are considered: the turnout in 2012 was just 59 per cent - a record low - but it went up to 82 per cent the following year, when the elections coincided with the general election.
But this time round, it appears that turnout will be closer to the 2012 figure than the 2013 figures, if the iSurvey is any indication.
Excluding those who live in localities where elections are not going to be held and those who refused to answer, just 61 per cent of respondents said that they will be voting in next Saturday's local council elections, a figure only marginally higher than the lowest on record.
Curiously, it appears that those who voted for the PN in the 2013 general election are somewhat more likely to vote, in spite of the Labour Party's more high-profile campaign: 65.3 per cent of eligible PN supporters said that they intended to vote, compared to 60.2 per cent of Labour supporters.
It remains to be seen whether such a low turnout would have an impact on the referendum, which requires a national turnout of at least 50 per cent to be valid.
But the turnout may improve due to efforts to bring out the vote by political parties and by referendum campaigners alike.
Of course, political parties are well aware that convincing their supporters to turn up and vote to elections that are considered to be of relatively little importance is crucial if they are to get a positive result.
But the SHout anti-spring hunting campaign has also been emphasising that people should collect their voting documents in recent days; such a call could indirectly boost turnout for the local council elections.