Mohamed Mufti
After nearly one year, the UN effort in Libya is grinding to a halt, with no viable and long-promised government of national unity in sight.
Bolero in Juliana
I recall seeing a play, a few years ago, in one of the Benghazi theatres. The city was then a peaceful and forward-looking town with a creative elite. Now, Benghazi has been largely buried under the rubbles of a ferocious civil war that the world prefers to ignore.
There was one scene in that play which I keep remembering whenever I hear any piece of news about the Libyan reconciliation talks overseen by the UN representative and Spanish diplomat Mr Bernardino Leon. The producer of that play had a Tuareg man provide the background music. Sitting cross-legged at the back of the stage and softly drumming on a sheepskin stretched over a wooden bowl. And would you believe it, the melody was none other than the Bolero by Maurice Ravel. Bolero, with its simple rhythm, is a mystifying and mesmerising piece of music. For some reason, I seemed to hope that the Spaniard diplomat, Signor Leon, would provide a similar synthesis by blending traditional desert wisdom with rational politics.
Betting on the wrong horse
The Libyan crisis is very complex, intricate and multifaceted. Libya’s economy is in free fall; it has two parliaments, two governments, undefended borders with unimpeded illegal migration northwards, some 200 armed militias, with an increasing IS presence in various parts of the country now mainly in Sirte, at the gate to the Oil crescent.
The UN Commissioner to Libya has focused on reconciliation between the two parliaments, with the hope of forging a single coalition government to ‘run’ the country and help Europe to stem illegal migration and the threat of extremists. A logical approach, you may say, but one that would work only those Libyan politicians involved had any power on the ground.
Unfortunately, political structures in Libya today are mere facades, having been subordinated to their regional armed groups, such as the Dawn of Libya Alliance which controls the capital Tripoli, and the Army led by General Hefter controlling the eastern parts of Cyrenaica including major sectors of Benghazi.
While one can applaud the patient efforts of the UN commission to negotiate a reconciliation agreement in Libya, no government of national unity has been formed, while the political accord reached is fragile, if not altogether dysfunctional.
Predictions
I should point out that I have, from the start, had my doubts as to the prospect of success of the UN sponsored talks, and made my opinion clear in several articles published by The Malta Independent on Sunday. In my last article entitled “Libya: Truce or Apocalypse” in The Malta Independent on Sunday of 16 August, I wrote: “… I have been wary of too much optimism regarding the present UN approach. The current civil war must first be brought to an end. Mr Leon may have proved to be a juggler, who was able to muster pressure from distant interested quarters in order to coerce or lure hesitant groups to the negotiating table. Yet his task was plagued by suspicions, squabbles and interruptions and false promises. All this leads to one conclusion. For the Libyan Dialogue to be rewarding, negotiations must involve the military leaders on both sides of the divide. This may sound like seeking the impossible in view of the depth of reciprocal hatred, suspicions, and feelings of guilt of talking to those who have killed your comrades.”
Insights
The general approach recommended here differs from the priorities chosen by Signor Leon. In the long run, the country needs a high dose of good will as well as a coalition government. The Libyan leadership needs new insights and the participation of genuine and effective political figures.
Libyans, like all nations, possess the psychological resources to forgive and forget. There were no recriminations or revenge after the Italian occupation earlier last century or following the fall of the Gaddafi regime five years ago. Such attitudes are instilled by example rather than rhetoric.
The roots of the current fighting are largely psychological. There are no real or serious divisions over geography, race or sect. Criminal acts are limited to embezzlement for ransom or feud killings, which should be possible to control by ordinary police measures.
The only wealth in Libya is oil, which has been a national ownership by the force of law, with royalties paid into the Central Bank.
Recruit the silent majority
Signor Leon conducted his mediations behind closed doors. He thus deprived his effort from the general psychological momentum that would have resulted from mobilising the silent majority. Furthermore, by restricting the talks to civilian politicians he was denied any immediate and palpable results.
Dealing with politicians who were in fact emissaries, depleted negotiations into a haggling match over positions and legal details that masked the more honourable goals of restoring security and prosperity. The popular support could not be stimulated or galvanized.
It should be noted that the last elections showed clearly that there is a general aversion to mixing politics and religion. Most votes went to Liberal candidates. However, most potential voters abstained or did not go to the voting booths but the West turned a blind eye to such defects of democracy!
Include militia leaders
War lords with their acquired interests have to be given a role in the peace process. Extremists have to be patiently held at bay and left exposed to elements of attrition, mainly Time.
Negotiations should in my opinion, be sought through a local initiative which makes use of traditional channels and local means of persuasion, pressure, pledges and guarantees. Such mediation requires individuals with credibility, as well as familiarity with the socio-political geography of Libya.
First a Benghazi truce
For many reasons, I feel that a pan-Libyan reconciliation is not possible without first diffusing the situation in Benghazi, the “city of all Libyans” which historically has been the peacemaker in Libyan politics. I have already suggested this to the belligerent groups in that wretched city. Many details can be worked out to establish a truce, preferably sponsored by Western powers. The first step towards a ceasefire will be personal individual contacts with various armed and political leaders. The ceasefire is to be enforced by Libyan troops deployed from neutral parts of the country.
I have recently written a personal letter to Signor Leon, but have yet to receive an answer,
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