The peak tourist season in Malta could require a shift as a result of an expected temperature increase of around 2°C over the next four to six decades, according to a study.
Dr Charles Galdies, in a study on the impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Malta and Venice, found that, in Malta, the average temperature for July is expected to rise by 1.9°C by 2050 and by 2°C by 2070. The average temperature for August is expected to rise by 2.1°C by 2050 and by 2.2°C by 2070.
The study, published in the Journal of the Malta Chamber of Scientists, speaks about the link between tourism and climate. “Tourism activities are affected by climatic nature or other temporal factors, such as seasonality. In the tourism sector, a favourable climate can be regarded as a resource and destinations with climate resources of a better quality than others always enjoy a competitive advantage. Economically, a strong link has developed between these destination-based activities and the employment generated, which however could be disrupted in the face of a changing climate.”
Tourism is one of the most economic pillars in Malta, generating over 8% of total employment. “Success originates mainly from Malta’s Mediterranean climate, which provides an ideal year-round destination. According to MTA in 2013 more than 1.58 tourists visited Malta, spending an average of 8 nights and spending a mean €910 per person. Main motivations were agreeable climate, new destination and history and culture.
Climatic shifts
Study results show localised warming trends of the annual highest maximum temperature at both destinations, with +0.09C in Malta and +0.63C in Venice. Results also show similar warming trends in the annual lowest minimum temperatures of +0.02C in Malta and +0.04C in Venice.
The study also highlighted that climatic shifts in terms of an increased rate in the mean temperature anomaly, with respect to the climate norm, over Malta (+1.1) and Venice (+1.7◦C) are linked to the larger regional and global impact originating from a warmer climate.
The number of sub-hourly occurrences of bad visibility and adverse weather (such as thunderstorms, precipitation, etc.) were also seen to decrease over Venice.
“The study verified that a definitive shift in a number of weather patterns has been detected at the two destinations. This included an increased incidence of heat-wave episodes, increased occurrence of higher temperature maxima and minima, as well as an overall positive anomaly in the mean temperature at the two destinations.”
More heatwaves
Dr Galdies had already highlighted a higher incidence of heat-wave events in Malta in recent years. “The rate of increase of the anomaly in the mean temperature is 1.1°C while the positive trend observed for the maximum temperature recorded over the Maltese islands comes to +1.2°C over the time period studied (46 years). This is equivalent to an increase of around 0.1°C per year in the yearly maximum temperature.” The observed precipitation decrease also implied an environment that is becoming increasingly dry.
“Results of this study show that the climate is already changing, and the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves may change in the future. Recent extreme weather events caused serious health and social problems in Europe, particularly in urban areas. Extreme events will pose additional challenges to the management of health risks to both public health and tourist sector alike.”
Wind speed drops
Dr Galdies found that while some weather conditions, such as temperature, were getting worse, other factors, which are linked, such as a lack of wind, are actually making the destinations more attractive for tourists seeking beach holidays. “The derivatives obtained from the elementary meteorological observations show that the level of comfort experienced by visiting tourists over the long term is deteriorating when it comes to the increased heat stress. However, the increased occurrence of optimal wind speed conditions and lack of gale storms, as well as a reduced occurrence of adverse wind chill events is making these destinations more attractive.”
Higher temperatures pose a risk
But higher temperatures posed a risk. “Of high concern is the temporal trend of the heat stress index, for which positive trends exist for both the occurrence of the critical and to a lesser extent that for optimal conditions.” It found that the future Human Bioclimatic Comfort Index, based on the worst case radiative scenario modelled for 2070, is expected to reach critical conditions during the peak visiting months (July and August) in both Malta and Venice. “This could imply a required shift, as a form of adaptation, of the visitation periods at these two destinations.”
Dr Galdies says policymakers should take stock of these findings. But a shift in peak seasons could prove difficult. “The positive and negative impacts of a changing climate on visiting tourists at these two localities (Malta and Venice) are of practical importance to decision makers. In the case of Malta, such information has never been compiled. Adaptation options exist for both destinations but most of these are options that are likely to add costs and offer only short-term relief. Under the observed scenario of higher temperatures, questions exist as to whether adaptation is realistic, other than a possible shift in tourism peak seasons. These changes are likely to create opportunities at both destinations, including employment and income. However, non-climate factors such as the dates of school holidays during summer might still influence families to keep their current visitation preferences.”