Gawarsha is a little village some 10 km to the south of Benghazi, where I lived and had my surgical clinic for a few years. I had to close the clinic two years ago. Gawarsha used to have fertile soil, inundated every winter by water from the Gattarah Weid. During the Italian colonization period, it became a model village, with windmills, a railway station and an annual agricultural fair. In more recent years, the water table dropped significantly, and the farms and gardens ceased to produce. Gawarsha has been rapidly growing into a residential suburb of Benghazi.
In the current Benghazi civil war, Gawarsha has been the last stronghold of the Militias. In a dramatic week of ferocious fighting around the village, the Libyan army led by General Hefter has succeeded in extending its control over Benghazi thus displacing the Islamic militias of the Shura Council.
At the other, western end of Libya resides the UN-backed government of Mr Sarraj (GNA) in Tripoli. European governments while sending their officials by boat to express solidarity with GNA, have remained hesitant following a preliminary request by that government to legitimize any military intervention against IS in Libya. However, the GNA has yet to be accredited by Parliament.
The Tobruk Parliament has resorted to almost ridiculous tactics to deny approval to the Sarraj government. The procrastination has been clearly to allow General Hefter’s army the time to complete its job, so to speak.
Clearly, General Hefter and his officers have, over the last two years, built up a disciplined fighting force as well as amassing weapons and ammunition. The General has been able to bring in battalions of the restless Tibou population who normally live along the southern borders of Libya, with Chad. The army’s next declared intention is to move fast to extend its control over the oil crescent up to Sirte. For the final push into Sirte, General Hefter might receive support from remnants of Gaddafi’s army in Sirte and the Fezzan, the southern region of Libya.
In short, General Hefter has tipped the power balance in Libya towards a more realistic level, where Benghazi and Cyrenaica, the eastern region of Libya, can have greater say and representation. In contrast, these same developments will curtail the power and influence of ambitious and thus far king-maker Misrata. Such a shift will certainly be welcomed by Misrata’s rivals. Misratan merchants, omnipresent in every Libyan oasis and town over the last two centuries, have been a unifying force in the disparate Libyan society. But after the fall of Gaddafi, militant groups in Misrata committed many a bloody and arrogant blunder.
Clearly, the UN backed Political Accord has not worked. I have written many a time that it was flawed. Its final fruit has been the present Sarraj GNA coalition which remains incarcerated in a naval base and has been unable to achieve consensus or authority so far. Indeed Martin Kobler, the UN man in Libya, told Sky News (16th April) that the capital Tripoli remains without effective police, while many of its militias oppose the Political Accord, and may contain dormant IS cells.
On the fighting at Gawarsha, Kobler tweeted on Wednesday 20th April: “Civilians’ situation caught up in Benghazi fight is grave & worrisome. I demand all parties to protect them, allow safe & immediate evacuation”. Kobler is apparently preparing to draw the curtain over the last tragic scenes in the Benghazi civil war.
The Libyan situation must be viewed against such a background. What may result is some form of broad coalition that accommodates Muslim Brotherhood and Muqatila, Cyrenaican groups depending on General Hefter prowess, and pro-Gaddafi groups based in Sirte and the South. Cultural groupings, namely the Amazigh, the Tuaregs and the Tibou are already represented.
The Libyan crisis is nowhere near full resolution. But the fact that UN and Western governments, despite all the contradictions and confusions, seem to have taken the Libyans to such a stage of imminent reconciliation, deserves applause but not euphoria. The real business of warding off IS, reclaiming oil fields and controlling illegal migration is only starting. Libya’s immediate problems of security, hardship, inflation, and population displacement have to be tackled first.
The GNA may for the time being, be safe and sound in a naval base on the shore of Tripoli. But it’s not safe sailing yet.