Yesterday’s crashing of an EgyptAir plane into the Mediterranean is concerning on any level.  But, if as several authorities were suggesting at the time of writing yesterday, that the plane and the 66 people who lost their lives was the result of a terrorist attack then the whole matter becomes even more concerning still.

The exact cause of yesterday’s air tragedy is still to be determined and as such, initial claims that the jet suffered a terrorist attack should be treated with caution.  Moreover, at the time of writing no terrorist organisation had claimed responsibility for the crash.

But whatever the case, the Mediterranean basin has, truth be told, become a hotbed of terrorist activity.  And Malta, lying as it does right smack in the middle of the region, has a great deal to be concerned about.  And foremost among those concerns are those emanating from Libya.

The whole of the Maghreb has been battling extremists and terrorists but it is Malta’s two closest Maghreb countries – Tunisia and Libya – that appear to be bearing the brunt of terrorist activity within its boundaries.

In Libya in particular there are the multiple threats posed by Islamic extremists taking hold: threats of those extremists setting their sights on an attack on EU soil, of a fractured Libyan state leading to even greater chaos than that predominating at the moment, and the threat of the Islamic State gaining more ground in the deeply fractured country.

A report this week by Human Rights Watch on the situation in Sirte, geographically dead south from Malta and only a few hundred miles away, makes for harrowing reading.  Since February, the report details, the Islamic State has executed at least 49 people in its Libyan stronghold.  Former residents describe a city in which corpses hang from scaffoldings, masked men kidnap people from their beds at night and morality police patrol the streets, ready to flog men caught smoking or listening to music.

Captive fighters, political opponents and people Islamic State accused of anything from ‘sorcery’ to ‘insulting God’ were decapitated and shot, the report found.  IS has also diverted food, medicine, fuel and funds away from the local population and seized homes from those who fled.

The murder of civilians, or wounded or captive fighters, by members of a party to an armed conflict is a war crime, as is executing people without a fair trial by a regular court. The nature and scale of Islamic State’s unlawful executions and other acts in Libya also may amount to crimes against humanity, Human Rights Watch said.

Sirte has become the Islamic State’s largest stronghold outside of Iraq and Syria, and it is located directly south of Malta.

On Monday, the United States and other world powers said they would supply Libya's internationally recognised government with weapons to counter the Islamic State and other militant groups gaining footholds in the chaos-wracked country's lawless regions.

Aiming to simultaneously support the fragile government, and prevent Islamic State fighters and rival militias from further gains, the US, the four other permanent UN Security Council members and more than 15 other nations said they would approve exemptions to a United Nations arms embargo to allow military sales and aid to Libya's so-called Government of National Accord.

In a joint communiqué, the nations said that while the broader embargo will remain in place, they are “ready to respond to the Libyan government's requests for training and equipping” government forces.

The step will certainly boost the government's efforts to consolidate power and regain control over Libyan state institutions like the central bank and national oil company. However, it also comes with risks, not least of which is that the arms may be captured or otherwise taken by the Islamic State or other groups.

Libya descended into chaos after the ouster of long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi five years ago and soon turned into a battleground of rival militias battling for powers. More recently, the power vacuum has allowed Islamic State radicals to expand their presence, giving them a potential base in a country separated from Europe only by a relatively small stretch of the Mediterranean Sea – of which Malta lies right bang in the middle.

Also worrying for Europe is the potential threat of a mass influx of refugees amassing in Libya, now that the earlier route from Turkey into Greece has been essentially shut down.

As such, any US, UN or EU move vis-à-vis Libya is fraught with serious concern for Malta, concerns that will be realised should things go even more pear-shaped than they already are. 

As such, Malta should be paying particular attention to developments there.  The Maltese government is undoubtedly doing so but it should also be very careful with whom it does its business in the rapidly changing country where today’s winner is tomorrow’s loser and where the current grip on power is so tenuous that absolutely nothing is guaranteed.