Do polls mean anything any more?

In the last general elections in the UK, they forecasted everything the wrong way round.

Similarly and more dangerously, when it came to the results of the Brexit referendum. Up to the end, excepting when for a week and a half, the polls announced that Brexit was catching up, they were all the time concluding that the Remain camp was ahead. Then, what had to happen, happened.

Another story of the samekind happened in the Spanish elections of last Sunday. For the past weeks, polls had been showing that the left-left party Podemos, allied with the ex-communist left, would become the second largest Spanish political party. Exit polls continued to confirm this story up to well into the night.

When the results were finalised, Podemos remained in third place, and its share of the vote had declined.

Why should this be of interest?

Because polls have become the compass used in political affairs. As in the marketing that I used to study and teach long years ago, political strategies are being continuously mapped according to the shifts of opinion as registered by the polls. For a long while, these were a good tool by which to secure electoral successes, big and small.

If this compass is now getting things wrong, how more confused will be the political decisions taken on the basis of the perspectives it provides?

***

Lord Hill

A first casualty of Brexit was European Commissioner Lord Hill, nominated by the UK. As soon as the Brexit referendum results were published, at the European Parliament and outside, remarks started being made about how UK representatives needed now to stay back from participating in EU activities since they will be leaving.

Immediately, Hill resigned. He was in charge of financial services, a post that the UK government had wanted for itself, due to the importance of this sector in the British economy. Hill managed his dossiers without blowing trumpets. He avoided controversies but was closely attentive to important details in the changes he wanted to implement.

Some “continental” representatives did not like him. They considered him too liberal. His way of considering matters was quite close to the manner by which it made sense for us in Malta, that the EU consider the regulation of financial matters.                      

***

Socialist MEPs

A meeting was held of the socialist and democratic grouping at the European Parliament prior to the plenary meeting of the Parliament which was to discuss Brexit. British Labour Party MEPs got the bulk of the attention.

Their mandate will shortly cease. They were emotional. I sympathised with them.

Many are/were dedicated to EP work and carried it out assiduously. When working close to them, I could not but appreciate their efforts, even if I did not always agree with them, especially in discussions about taxation policies in the EU context.

The S & D group will be badly hit by the UK’s withdrawal. The Tories under Cameron had left the European Popular Party, while Labour’s MEPs stayed affiliated with the S & D. With the departure of UK MEPs, the EPP will retain its parliamentary strength, the S&D will lose some of it.