History relates the Wars of Scottish Independence fought between Scotland and England in the late 13th and early 14th centuries. Such wars were part of a great crisis for Scotland and this period became one of the most defining times in its history. At the end of these wars, Scotland retained its status as an independent state until 1705 when the signing of the Union charter finally united the two kingdoms. Back to the present, Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), has declared she will ask the Scottish Parliament to grant permission for a second referendum to ask the Scots for their opinion to secede from the Union. Ms Sturgeon wants the referendum to be held before Britain exits the European Union, that is, between autumn of 2018 and spring of 2019. Considering that the SNP has a substantial majority in the Scottish Parliament, it is easy to picture the scenario of Ms Sturgeon's request being given the green light. However, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is reluctant to allow the referendum to proceed before the Brexit negotiations are concluded, accusing the Scottish First Minister of creating 'uncertainty and division'. Technically, it is improbable that Mrs May will deny the Scottish people the right to a referendum, but she could object to the referendum taking place before Britain has left the EU.

Ms Sturgeon's argument cannot be brushed aside: "Scotland stands at a hugely important crossroad... we didn't choose to be in this position ... the stakes are high." This means choosing between either leaving the EU or becoming an independent country. It is less than three years since an independence referendum was defeated in Scotland by a vote of 55-45. The EU institutions in Brussels have warned Scotland it would have to re-apply to join the EU if it goes ahead with its plans for independence. In contrast to Ms Sturgeon's expectations of being speedily ushered into EU membership - with other countries waiting for their turn to join the EU, Scotland's application process could take years.

The leader of the SNP was not in favour of leaving the single market in what has been termed a 'hard Brexit'. On the other hand, the economic future of Scotland as an independent country is said to be riddled with difficulties. Top economist Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warned of an 'economic chaos' - the country having to choose between raising taxes or cutting spending. He also pointed out that Scotland may be cornered into having to adopt the euro to be able to stay in the EU.

Mr Johnson said taxes collected per person from Scotland were similar to those collected throughout the UK. However, the rate of spending in Scotland was higher per person than in the rest of the UK. This state of jingoism was compensated by an inflow of money from the UK in favour of Scotland. Severing this inflow would have to be made up by an increase in taxes.

It goes without saying that the UK's determination to go ahead with its Brexit plans will lead to lengthy negotiation proceedings that are not only time-consuming but also very costly. Meanwhile, Mrs May is intent on invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (TEU) by the end of March. Triggering this article, which was introduced in the Lisbon Treaty, gives a member state the right to withdraw from the European Union (EU).

Given that the UK has been a part of the EU for 43 years, there are literally thousands of issues that need to be discussed. In fact, the amount of work is so enormous that keeping to the two-year deadline will be an achievement. To the UK's disadvantage is also the fact that this is all 'uncharted territory' meaning they cannot rely on past experiences to find their way about.

One of the salient points of the Brexit debate is that the results of the referendum cannot be ignored, but there is also the fact that a large number of people voted to remain in the EU. The country is still so divided on this point that Lord Owen, an Independent Social Democrat, pointed out it is possible to reconsider the UK's position to leave throughout the two-year negotiation process, when technically the UK will still be a full member of the EU. On the other hand, Lord Bridges, Minister for the Department for Exiting the European Union, said the Bill should be passed as swiftly as possible allowing negotiations to proceed, as this would help to reduce the current state of uncertainty.

Needless to say, the consequences of Brexit on the UK aviation industry would be influenced by a negative impact on economic activity and the sterling (GBP) exchange rate. Certainly, there will be a slowdown in economic activity and the sterling exchange rate has fallen. Ideally, there could be an offsetting effect; however, the estimates predict a decline in air passengers to the UK of between three to five per cent by 2020.

The UK's share of international trade is dominated by the European Union. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates a decrease in UK international trade levels of 10 to 20 per cent by 2030. This will negatively affect the UK's airfreight market.

Let us review the Brexit ramifications from an aviation perspective. To start with, the EU has imposed on member states various measures governing issues of consumer protection, safety, security and the environment. This was one of the arguments of the Leave campaigners - to rid the UK of the restraining legal instruments of the EU institutions. However, the UK's necessity to maintain strong ties with the EU means that it will still have to comply with European aviation legislation, despite the reduced power of the UK government to participate in the decision-making processes of the EU. A case in point is membership of the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA) which permits access to the Europe's single market in aviation services - the Single Aviation Market. Membership of the ECAA involves compliance with aviation laws by the EU.

The ECAA is open to non-EU members and, though the UK has long been a proponent of liberalizing the aviation services market, it would be the simplest way for the UK to have access to the Single Aviation Market. As a member of the ECAA, the UK could be party to the EU-US agreement, as Norway and Iceland have done. On the other hand, the UK may take the idea from the EU-US agreement and decide to go for an EU-UK agreement, allowing the UK to compromise its exposure to EU aviation laws. Without going into the merits of an EU-UK aviation agreement, this could result in higher prices for UK carriers, opening the door to new opportunities for non-UK-based carriers. The stark truth for UK-based airlines is that they will need to relocate their headquarters or sell off shares to European nationals if they want to continue flying routes in continental Europe after Brexit.

 

Mr Camilleri is a trainee legal associate at PKF