Reliable sources within the government have cautioned this newsroom that the prospect of a snap election in July should not be discounted too easily by the media, which seems to be focusing on one in November.
Amongst the signals that a July snap election could be in the offing is the increased level of activity in government ministries. Sources told The Malta Independent on Sunday that people in key roles in Ministers’ secretariats have been placed on stop-leave. An assessment of what still needs to be completed from the government’s electoral manifesto has also been ordered by the office of Deputy Prime Minister Louis Grech, who is responsible for the manifesto’s implementation.
Another significant move worth noting is the placing of several pro-government billboards along the country’s most prominent roads. All these new billboards are without Planning Authority permits, but it should be noted that political party billboards are exempt from the requirement for such permits.
Cabinet Ministers are also being seen carrying out house visits in their respective constituencies during regular working hours instead of tending to government business.
And there has also been a surge in political activities being organised by the candidates, especially those of the Labour Party. A quick scan on the social media additionally shows just how active some Ministers have become in the past few weeks.
An early election in July would come a little more than a year ahead of its original time frame, with an election being mandatory by June 2018. Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, meanwhile, has announced that the election will be held in March 2018.
Bearing in mind the government’s six-seat parliamentary majority, a surplus in the country’s finances and a successful EU Presidential term that concludes in June, political analysts speaking to this newsroom gave other credible reasons that could influence the Prime Minister, or perhaps ‘force his hand’ would be a more appropriate term in this case.
Were an election to be held in July, dealing with the trouble at Air Malta could be postponed until after the event. With a fresh mandate, Joseph Muscat could take the required hard decisions on the airline immediately after winning the election. All the signs are pointing towards a liquidation of the company and a possible new start under a new brand, but the Prime Minister would not take that risk before an election.
Another reason the Prime Minister could favourably consider holding an election in July – and going against his promise to hold it in March 2018 – is that the Nationalist Party opposition is in the process of setting up a coalition with Marlene Farrugia’s Partit Demokratiku.
The announcement that PD candidates will be listed under the PN banner did not go as well as Simon Busuttil could have wished with PN activists. In fact, his silence on the matter is deafening and, so far, he only spoke to this newsroom on the matter by deflating Dr Farrugia’s enthusiasm by saying that talks on the coalition have yet to be finalised. The Prime Minister will surely take advantage of an Opposition in disarray and will not want to give them the time between now and either November this year or March 2018 to regroup.
Other reasons for favouring a July election concern the PL’s electoral base, which is becoming restless. People considered as being among the party’s grass roots are now openly criticising the government and are attacking Joseph Muscat for corruption and a lack of credibility. Some of the most prominent ones have also been recruited by the PN and are expressing their discord on the party’s media.
Finally, and possibly most importantly, Joseph Muscat and his two closest allies – Chief of Staff Keith Schembri and Minister Konrad Mizzi – might be needing a fresh mandate sooner rather than later.
While the Panama Papers are still hounding the Prime Minister and his closest friends, new information on the three companies secretly opened in Panama is set to emerge. The Malta Independent columnist and blogger Daphne Caruana Galizia is claiming to have found the beneficiary of the third mysterious company, Egrant Inc.
According to Mrs Caruana Galizia, the company was established to receive funds from Azerbaijan, a dictatorship with whom Muscat, Schembri and Mizzi scored a gas supply deal early on in this legislature. No media representatives were present when they visited the country and the agreement resulted in a fuel hedging loss of around €14 million.
In fact, yesterday Mrs Caruana Galizia began making new allegations with regard to Egrant, Azerbaijani money and the two companies owned by Mr Schembri and Dr Mizzi, and said that more information will be published early next week. Mr Schembri and Dr Mizzi quickly replied with public statements to the effect that they will be filing libel suits against her and that they will be asking the courts to hear the cases “with urgency”.
The Prime Minister may well want to get an election out of the way as quickly as he can and receive a fresh mandate, which will sweep all allegations under the carpet for good.
Political analysts claim that both Dr Muscat and Dr Busuttil can easily predict which way the election is going but it is the amount by which the victor takes government that will shape their political futures.
If the PL wins big, again, Dr Busuttil will have to resign – leaving the PN in greater turmoil than it has ever experienced. On the other hand, if Dr Muscat scores a humble victory, Dr Busuttil will remain at the helm of the PN, fighting even harder to bring the government down while Dr Muscat will be weakened to the point where he will find it hard to re appoint Konrad Mizzi to government, and retaining Keith Schembri as his Chief of Staff will prove similarly difficult.