"The huge potential of intra-Commonwealth trade and investment, the blue economy, climate change and security will be among the key topics at the 53-nation Commonwealth Heads of State and Government Meeting in London next week," the Commonwealth secretary-general, Baroness Scotland told this paper in an exclusive interview.
"Under the overarching theme of Towards a Common Future, related discussions will be held under one of the four CHOGM 2018 goals - a more prosperous future, a fairer future, a more secure future and a more sustainable future."
The two-day political leaders' meeting at Buckingham Palace was opened by the Head of the Commonwealth Queen Elizabeth II and will include the traditional "retreat" for leaders only, hosted by the Queen at Windsor Castle. Four preceding three-day fora for non-state actors will start on Monday - Business, Youth, Women's and People's - who will come together on Tuesday at the All Forum Day to discuss shared agendas, forge important partnerships and celebrate common interests.
As the current Commonwealth chair-in-office, Malta, represented by the Prime Minister accompanied by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Promotion and senior officials, will formally hand over chairship to the UK. The Small States Centre of Excellence in Malta decided on at the 2015 CHOGM in Malta is now operational and will be formally launched at CHOGM 2018.
"There are tremendous untapped trading opportunities within the Commonwealth," baroness Scotland explained. "A major finding of the 2018 Commonwealth Trade Review to be launched at CHOGM is that trade between Commonwealth countries is more than three times higher when they belong to an existing Regional Trade Agreement, highlighting the importance of effective regional integration for boosting the Commonwealth advantage. The Review focuses on strengthening the Commonwealth trade advantage and new trading opportunities by harnessing new technologies like digital trade and further reducing trade costs."
"CHOGM is expected to express support for a strong rules-based multilateral trading system and explore ways to support implementation of the World Trade Organisation's Trade Facilitation Agreement, enhance support for smaller countries to build their trading capacity and better participate in trade and strengthen dialogue and cooperation to boost intra-Commonwealth trade and investment. If these countries, such as the Commonwealth's 31 small states, are to achieve their UN Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 they need an enabling global environment supporting and enhancing their participation in world trade."
"But this openness leaves them disproportionately exposed to trade and other shocks since their trade costs are an estimated 50% higher than for developing countries as a whole while recently their competitiveness has been further impacted by the erosion of preferential tariffs as multilateral and regional trade liberalisation initiatives are implemented. At our member states' request, the Secretariat has undertaken analysis of the implications of Brexit with forward-looking options for Commonwealth nations. However, there will be no formal focus on Brexit or any post-Brexit trade deals, these being issues that the UK and other interested Commonwealth members can discuss bilaterally."
"While a Commonwealth-wide preferential trade deal would be extremely difficult to achieve, as Malta and Cyprus will remain EU members after Brexit, interested Commonwealth members could focus on achieving improved trade logistics and implementing trade facilitation measures; tackling non-tariff barriers; develop regional supply chains in sectors where Commonwealth regions have comparative advantages; exploiting the potential of strong and diverse diasporas to catalyse innovation and investment and to bridge into new markets making use of the Commonwealth as a platform for establishing and strengthening contacts between traders and investors."
The Commonwealth Blue Charter will be a key initiative discussed at CHOGM, taking an inclusive, holistic and participatory approach to developing Blue Economy opportunities and tackling the many problems the oceans face today. "Forty-six of our 53 member states border on the ocean; the health of the ocean is essential to the wellbeing of all nations," Scotland pointed out.
"The Commonwealth covers around a third of the world's marine waters under national jurisdiction. The resources of these waters provide food, employment and economic opportunities, coastal resilience and protection, spiritual and cultural heritage; they regulate weather and climate, oxygen and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. The Commonwealth Blue Charter follows on from the UN Ocean Conference co-hosted last June by Fiji and Sweden and will implement its outcomes through multi-national teams and collaborative Action Groups coordinated by the Secretariat focused on the highest priority issues."
Climate change remains a Commonwealth priority. At the 10th CHOGM in 1989 in Malaysia, leaders signed the Langkawi Declaration on the environment which for the first time collectively cited the greenhouse effect as one of the world's main environmental problems. The Declaration recognised threats to islands and low-lying coastal states of sea level rise and other climate change-induced perils. The 2015 CHOGM Commonwealth Leaders' Statement on Climate Action was a significant input to the successful adoption two weeks later at the subsequent UN climate change negotiations of the UN Paris Agreement on climate change, which entered into force on 4 November 2016.
"The Commonwealth and Fiji (President of the 2017 UN climate negotiations) are co-hosting a climate change event at CHOGM on 17 April," Scotland indicated "primarily focused on the Commonwealth Climate Programme and the action needed to meet the Paris Agreement aspirational goal of limiting the increase of global temperature to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. We will also seek to agree on the need for and process towards convening a future Commonwealth Climate Ministers Forum to build joint future action."
"We encourage all member states to sign up to the Talanoa dialogue process for informal discussions on climate change proposed by Fiji and launched at the most recent negotiations in Bonn last November. The Commonwealth Secretariat also hopes to participate and is signing up in its own right to participate as an international governmental body. We are becoming increasingly worried that global society will not manage to hit the Paris Agreement +1.5C target."
"In Bonn we launched our new ground-breaking Legal Toolkit on Climate Change providing ready access to all primary information sources for climate change laws and legal instruments across Commonwealth states. In addition, our rapidly growing Climate Finance Access Hub hosted an event on the need to build capacity for Commonwealth states to access international financing such as the Green Climate Fund and its prudent expenditure on adaptation and resilience. We also hosted an excellent intergenerational dialogue with the Commonwealth Youth Climate Network (CYCN)."
"Our many bilateral meetings there with member states particularly emphasised the Caribbean countries' urgent need to 'climate smart rebuild' following hurricanes Irma and Maria and take a regenerative development approach towards building climate resilience. Also, we stressed the need to change Overseas Development Assistance financing rules for countries previously categorised as middle-income, since some now face hurricane costs reaching as much as 200% of GDP. Caribbean nations and other members susceptible to climate change impacts face persistent debt problems. We have proposed a debt for climate swap approach with a pilot project in Jamaica under discussion with World Bank".
Discussions on security will revolve around national strategies, a Declaration on Cybercrime and efforts to counter violent extremism and related work by a Secretariat unit decided at the 2015 CHOGM and set up last year. Scotland explained that "our approach recognises that as violent extremists are adept at exploiting their own cross-border trans-national networks to recruit and to use violence those dedicated to preventing this phenomenon must use our own networks to their best effect to be just as adept. The Secretariat is working to assist member countries in sharing good practice, delivering capacity building and support programmes and harnessing the role of governments, civil society organisations and individuals to enhance the resilience of communities exposed to violent extremist narratives. We also leverage our decades of experience in strengthening the rule of law, human rights and youth empowerment, while drawing on the shared values, cultural and regional diversity of the Commonwealth."
Baroness Scotland will announce the opening of a Commonwealth Innovation Hub and report to leaders on the implementation to date of the four-year Strategic Plan 2017/2018-2019/2020 approved in 2017 by the Board of Governors and its related Delivery Plan. Mandates arising from CHOGM 2018 will be implemented through next year's Delivery Plan.