Some months ago I wrote an article with the same title (TMIS, 14 October 2007) in which I solicited the implementation of a building programme to set up an infrastructure of renewable energy (RE) and water management on our Islands.

I was disappointed by the lack of debate, at least in this paper. Was it because this article was considered extravagant and far-fetched, or was it because nobody is prepared to shell out cash for such a communal project that will safeguard a decent level of energy and water security for our future and for subsequent generations?

I proposed the introduction of a consumption tax (a VAT increase) specifically intended to finance the long-term project. I associate consumerism with energy consumption, hence the tax proposed. It is unfortunate that maybe the article appeared too close to an impending general election to draw even a hint of note by the political parties. As we the electorate know, taxes are never mentioned when an election is approaching. When the new legislature starts, maybe the newly elected government may take note and designate some of the new taxes that will inevitably shower upon us for the implementation of RE projects.

A Solar Grand Plan is an article that appeared in the January 2008 issue of The Scientific American. The three authors examined what infrastructure and funding would be needed to supply 69 per cent of the USA’s electricity needs with solar power plants by the year 2050. This energy amounts to 35 per cent of that nation’s total energy needs. Incorporating wind, geothermal and biomass sources of energy could supply 100 per cent of electricity and 90 per cent of all the USA’s energy needs by 2100. This article gave second fiddle to wind power and spoke little of energy efficiency as a requirement to curb energy demand. It is, however, a source of reference for the possibilities our island can emulate.

The authors of A Solar Grand Plan gave a price tag of $420 billion in subsidies over 40 years to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive. The project cost for subsidies equates to $1,400 for every US inhabitant, spread over 40 years. Let us ignore that the per capita energy consumption of the Maltese is substantially less than that of the average American and that the Maltese renewable energy mix would be more weighted towards the less costly offshore wind turbines. Applying the costing for Malta, doubling the figure to get an upper estimate and spreading it over 30 years would amount to an expenditure of around e97 every year for every Maltese inhabitant and this to meet 35 per cent of Malta’s electricity needs by 2040. The total expenditure for Malta (over 30 years) on such an infrastructure project may amount to e1,200 million.

A cynical comment on The Energy Blog remarked that for the US, quote, “$420 billion is very cheap compared with the $480 billion spent so far on the other US energy policy called Iraq” unquote. How does the Malta costing compare to e700 million of losses and subsidies to the shipyards or 30 years of past and future electricity surcharge subsidies totalling e1,400 million?

It is unfortunate that regarding commitment towards such projects, nothing really substantial has emerged from the electoral drumbeats of the main political parties. Rather, some are falling over each other trying to woo voters with the prospect of subsidised energy, a path diametrically opposite that taken by the concept of carbon taxation.

The present electorate will be guilty of abetting their leaders who persistently ignore the needs of the future, because we tend to vote for our wallets. If taxing alcohol and tobacco was meant to dissuade over-use for a healthier lifestyle, surely subsidising energy will not help the masses take remedial action to curb energy consumption? Giving out free compact fluorescent (energy saving) bulbs may have been a better policy than subsidising energy surcharges. If one ignores the possibility that impending peak oil timing could be scare-mongering to help keep current oil prices up, the truth is that peak oil has long been forecast to occur around the year 2015. The economic rise and energy demands of India and China were not in the equation 20 years ago, when 2015 was pencilled in. Recent articles are talking of peak oil starting to bite in 2010. Insignificant Malta could always beg for favours and handouts for scarce fuel.

Recent “political news” consisted of party spokesmen firing economic growth figures that would be achieved by their party’s respective future government. Economic growth, wealth creation and gross domestic product increases have long been recognised as being closely linked to increasing energy demand. A healthy and environmentally desirable sign is a decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption. This decoupling has been seen even in Malta. The general trend for energy demand, however, still remains upwards and since RE production in our country is miniscule, increased energy demand from economic growth will be met exclusively by fossil fuels. This brings us to the EU Commission’s imposed targets of achieving 10 per cent of our country’s electricity needs from RE by 2020.

Malta has had research and pilot projects on RE for many years. I do not think there is place for any more stalling research in the next 12 years if we are to achieve an annual RE installation rate equivalent to 0.9 per cent (25GWh) of total yearly electricity generation at current energy demands and growth rate. Characteristic of RE systems, they cannot give you the maximum installed output all the time all year round. From a wind and solar RE mix one could optimistically expect a yearly output equivalent to 20 per cent of maximum installed capacity. Put more simply, we have to install RE plants with a maximum installed capacity of 15MW every year for each of the next 12 years. By 2020, we must install the equivalent of 52 offshore 3.5MW wind turbines or find four to six square kilometres to install solar energy installations. Some 1.5 to two square kilometres of disturbed ground is immediately available for solar thermal plants over stone quarries; built up areas, starting with industrial buildings and adjacent areas, can easily supply four square kilometres for solar electric (PV) installations.

The Draft Renewable Energy Policy for Malta, published in August 2006 (and presumably researched well before that date), refers to “Setting ambitious yet feasible targets” and recalls “The Treaty of Accession of Malta to the EU sets a target of 5 per cent of the total electric energy to be generated in 2010 to be generated from renewable energy sources”. By now we should be at the level of at least two per cent, and not 0.05 per cent or thereabouts. Even if the starter gun is fired tomorrow, it will take at least 18 months to manufacture and install the plants. That means that we have to install 90 MW peak installed capacity between October 2009 and December 2010 – an unlikely scenario, even if Al Gore becomes Prime Minister of Malta (another unlikely scenario).