After a week without new positive cases, Malta’s Covid-19 reproduction number has now dropped to below 0.2, statistician Vincent Marmara told The Malta Independent on Sunday in his exclusive weekly vlog.
The decrease comes after a week where no new cases of the virus were detected, with the number of active cases dipping to as low as three before a new case was found on Saturday – the first new case in eight days.
The reproduction number of the virus is one of the key figures which countries across the world have been trying to reduce ever since the Covid-19 pandemic began. The aim for countries has been to reduce the rate to a level of 1 – which would mean that one person would transmit the virus to one other person.
Marmara said that after the decrease, Malta’s reproduction number has dipped below 0.2, and if the decrease continues to be sustained then it may even reach 0 after a certain number of days without new cases.
Marmara delved into the situation in other countries, noting that cases are continuing to increase in Israel and, at an even quicker pace, in the United States of America who have seen no respite in the number of cases in months.
In Europe meanwhile, Marmara noted that a small increase in cases was registered in Spain, while the situation had remained very much in control in Italy and in the United Kingdom.
Marmara looked at Australia as an important indicator, given that Australia is now entering winter due to it being in the southern hemisphere. He noted the number of cases had started to increase again after a number of weeks at a low level.
This could be an important indicator over the seasonality of the virus. Much like influenza, it is possible that the spread of the virus is season and dependent on temperature. Researchers have yet to ascertain whether this is the case, but the situation in countries such as Australia who are now facing winter could provide a solid indication over whether this is indeed the case or not.
Marmara said that with cases very low, people should enjoy the success but in a responsible manner so as to ensure that the country and the situation keeps moving in the right direction.