Iraq pulled off an election in spite of all the difficulties encountered and the best efforts of insurgents not to let it happen.

The most difficult part still lies ahead. The Iraqis have to form a new governing coalition, write a constitution and win international trust.

Achieving those targets will be harder because the election was tempered by the absence of many of the Sunni Arabs, who honoured a boycott call and did not go to vote.

Without the support of the Sunnis, even among those who stayed at home last Sunday, it is improbable that the new leadership will win the public backing necessary to quell the rebellion and speed the day when 150,000 US troops can leave the country. Sunni Arabs make up 20 per cent of Iraq’s 26 million population and are the backbone of the insurgency.

The most critical period will be the first month or two while the results are being worked out. Analysts say that if the winners treat an election as a winner-take-all contest – as is done in America – it will probably further polarise the country, and bring higher levels of violence.

Yet such gloomy evaluations were not present last Sunday.

Iraqi officials were overjoyed that the election was actually held, given the enormous challenge of organising a nationwide poll in the middle of an insurgency where candidates were murdered, election workers threatened and polling stations blasted.

Only a few weeks ago, some of the very politicians crowing about the success of Sunday’s balloting had actually called for a delay, arguing it was simply too dangerous to hold an election now.

When the day actually came, turnout was heavy in Shiite and Kurdish areas.

As expected, the turnout in Sunni areas of central, western and northern Iraq – the core of the uprising – was low. Iraqi election officials said no official turnout figures would be available until all the votes are counted, and that might take us into next week.

But residents of Sunni cities such as Beiji, Samarra, Ramadi and Tikrit reported turnouts well below those of Shiite areas of the south and Kurdish strongholds in the north.

Journalists on duty in Mosul, Iraq’s third largest city, found large numbers of Kurds lined up to vote but fewer Sunni Arabs, although they are the largest community there.

Sunni Arabs may have voted in bigger numbers in mixed areas of Baghdad and other cities, where pressure to boycott was less intense than in the Sunni heartland.

The apparent low turnout in the Sunni provinces of Anbar, Salaheddin and Ninevah, and in Baghdad’s Sunni neighbourhood of Azamiyah, raises questions about whether Sunni Arabs will believe they have a stake in the new government, or in the new Iraq.

The new leadership could take a major step toward to win Sunni confidence by making sure they have a major role in the drafting of the new constitution. This is considered to be the major task of the 275-member National Assembly during its 11 months in office.

If all goes according to plan, the constitution will define power among Iraq’s disparate groups – Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkomen and others.

It will also provide the legal foundation for another election in December.

If the Sunnis believe they have received a fair share of power, support for the insurgency might wane.

Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni elder statesman and candidate for the National Assembly, believes a Sunni role in drafting the constitution would go a long way towards easing disaffection.

“The main thing, I think, is we should really have a constitution written by representatives of all segments of Iraq’s population,” Pachachi said. “I think it would improve the security situation” – and encourage more Sunnis to vote when that December election comes around.