The results of the local council elections held last Saturday were not a surprise. It was predictable that the Nationalist Party would have lost support to the advantage of the Malta Labour Party.
The question that needed to be answered was by how much would the MLP have won. Well, a nine per cent gap between the two major parties – 53 per cent for the MLP and 44 per cent for the PN – was something that few expected.
Considering that this gap was registered in spite of the fact that local council elections were not held in two Labour strongholds, those of Marsa and Zejtun, Labour’s victory is enormous. It could have increased by a few other percentage points if the PN had not withdrawn its candidates from these two localities.
No doubt, it is a crushing defeat for the PN, one that comes after its two losses last year – in the elections for Malta’s representatives in the European Parliament and in the ones for the local councils, held in June last year.
Three elections, three defeats for new PN leader Lawrence Gonzi. Although there is still a long way to go till the end of this legislature, things seem to be going from bad to worse for this government and, unless matters change drastically in this time-span, Castille would be occupied by another man in 2008.
That man is Alfred Sant who, having himself survived three defeats – the 1998 and 2003 elections, interspersed by the EU referendum – has bounced back stronger than ever. Although only one third of the population voted last Saturday, the general feeling was that Labour would have won handsomely too had the polls been held nationwide.
The PN has lost the majority in two localities – those of Mqabba and Santa Venera – but, apart from this, it lost votes in practically all localities. In all, the PN dropped four per cent of the votes it had gained in the same localities three years ago, while the MLP gained five per cent.
Like the PN, Alternattiva Demokratika failed rather badly too. None of its six candidates were elected, and the support garnered this time round was way below the moral victory it obtained last year when Prof. Arnold Cassola picked up 22,000 votes in the EP election. Last Saturday’s results are similar to those obtained in 2002, which means that at locality level matters did not improve.
There are lessons to be learnt for all the three parties after last Saturday’s polls.
The Nationalists must realise that they need to change. A new leadership is not enough when old methods remain. The party has lost its grip on the feelings of the people, and that section that is traditionally linked to it – the middle class – does no longer identify itself in the PN.
The past is history and the PN can no longer bank on the failures of the MLP governments up to 1987 and between 1996 and 1998. The European Union, the pillar on which the PN won its last election, is no longer an issue. The distance between the PN and the people seems to be growing wider every day, and the PN must see that it is bridged as quickly as possible.
For its part, the MLP must not rest on its laurels. The victories it obtained in the last nine months would mean nothing unless they are followed up with a general election victory in three years’ time. The party will remember that, in 2002, it had also won the local council elections, but then failed to be elected to government a year later.
What should give the MLP more confidence is the fact that, as explained earlier, the factor that swung the balance in favour of the PN two years ago was EU membership. But the MLP must be careful not to lose all it has gained so far. It must therefore maintain its constant and careful approach which has seen it earn support because it spoke about the needs of the people.
For AD, the result is a setback after last year’s success and this should make it realise that it is a long way away from making inroads between the two major parties. Prof. Arnold Cassola’s positive result in the EP election probably pushed up AD’s expectations, but now AD will have to review its situation.