Pope John Paul II has still to be laid to rest, but speculation about the man who will succeed him as head of the Roman Catholic Church is already rife.

Less than three weeks after his death, 117 cardinals will be asked to select the new Pope. None of those who have this momentous duty are allowed to discuss the issue, but the media around the world have compiled a list of potential successors, and the race is on.

Overt campaigning for the leadership by any candidate is prohibited, and it is hard to say, as this point, who will be replacing the man from Poland.

And if the election of Karol Wojtyla in 1978 is anything to go by, the election of a new pope might be another surprise.

Nobody thought that the 58-year-old cardinal from Eastern Europe would be the successor to Pope John Paul I, who had died after just 33 days in office. With his election, Cardinal Wojtyla broke a tradition of Italian popes which had lasted since the Middle Ages.

The run-up is further complicated by the fact that the College of Cardinals has its largest number of voters in history and only three of the 117 who will vote for the new pope were not appointed by Pope John Paul II. They come from 52 nations.

Modern technology may offer some differences from previous elections. This time around, the massive media presence in Rome will create a considerable amount of pressure on the individual cardinals.

Any cardinals who agree to grant interviews or make comments will stick to generalisations, but their comments will be sifted, interpreted and analysed.

Another source of information which was not around 27 years ago is the internet. Whatever cardinals have said over the years is there for those who want to look them up, and any statements that they have made might increase or decrease an individual’s chances.

The real campaigning will occur within the walls of the conclave, over meals and internal discussions that will enable the cardinals to decide who would be the best choice.

Things will be made easier for the cardinals this time. In the past, they used to stay in the cramped quarters of the Apostolic Palace, but voters will now reside in the comfortable Domus Santae Marthae, built especially for this purpose.

A two-thirds majority is needed, but if nobody manages to acquire this, a pope can be elected with a simple majority.

Will geography play an important role in the choice?

If yes, it is likely that another European will be pope. Once the centre of the Church, the continent still retains nearly half the voting cardinals, including 20 Italians. Whether an Italian will be appointed is, however, a big question mark.

Latin America claims some 42 per cent of the world’s Catholics but only 18 per cent of the votes in the conclave. There is also a chance that the pope will, for the first time, come from Africa.

It is not likely that the pope will be American, but with 11 votes, they have the potential to swing the balance one side or another.

One also needs to see whether the man who will be chosen will be similar to Pope John Paul II. Very often, cardinals tend to veer towards a different kind of leader after the death of a pope, especially one who has led the Church for more than a quarter of a century.

It is also probable that, after a 27-year pontificate, younger candidates will be avoided in order to eliminate the possibility of another long term.

All this means that speculation will continue, but nothing will be definite until the crowd gathered in St Peter’s Square is told: “We have a pope”.