The Pope’s funeral played havoc with the Brits.

It made Prince Charles postpone his wedding date by one day while Tony Blair had to do the same in announcing the 5 May general election.

As a close follower of the British political scene, I have been trying to figure out what will make the three main parties tick during this particular campaign, as well as what will be the campaign’s strong and salient points.

One thing seems certain: if Labour win, they will do so with a reduced majority.

What still has to be figured out is the extent of the shrinkage of that majority.

Something which can have a bearing on Blair’s clout within the party as well as on the prospects of a likely Brown premiership sometime during the forthcoming legislature.

If Labour’s strong selling point is the state of the economy, the Iraqi war is bound to haunt Blair and his associates throughout the campaign, even though he has taken on board the campaign trail anti-war MPs, such as former minister Robin Cook, to make Labour seem more palatable to those who grew distant from it because of its war stance.

While many voters tend to increasingly prefer Tory policies on tax and public spending, Labour’s economic record is a gift horse for Gordon Brown & Co.

In his last speech before Tony Blair’s perfunctory visit to Buckingham Palace to formally call the election, Mr Brown promised a third Labour term of investment in science to equip Britain to compete with China and India.

He also highlighted government’s plans for investing long term in skills, science and enterprise, helping families trying to balance work and family life, and investing in and reforming public services.

What was interesting was that at a time when the Labour lead over the Tories began to shrink, Brown emphasised that one should dismiss suggestions that there was little difference between the parties’ economic policies.

Labour’s message is clear: Britain will face a fundamental choice that will not only define the future of its economy but also the long-term strength of its society.

In other parts of his speech, Brown repeated the message that there are profound differences between their opponents and Labour over the direction which Britain must take.

Labour’s manifesto will show how they will lock in stability, enhance flexibility and invest for success.

Another strong point for Labour is that Britain’s economic growth is one of the highest among the major economies.

The choice is also being set as one between short-term and long-term future plans.

I suspect that, although Blair has much to boast of economically, this is ultimately a defensive stance in the sense that as the gap between the two parties narrows, Labour is feeling that the differences between them are sometimes indistinguishable.

For their part, the Tories face two major dilemmas. The first one is that they are unlikely to win and the second that even if they do not win, they risk remaining lumped with Michael Howard if he is not humiliated at the polls. That will leave Tory modernisers in a lose-lose situation.

I personally believe that unless the Tories go through the wholesale transformation that Labour went through in the 1990s they will remain unelectable.

Charles Kennedy’s biggest handicap is, as a correspondent bluntly put it, a situation where anyone who votes for him knows that he is not voting for a prime minister. The best the Liberal Democrats can hope for is a hung parliament, which could lead them to secure certain concessions from a new Labour government.

While the Tories have been relying on Australian spin-doctors for this campaign, we still have to find out whether the Milburn approach will give Labour the necessary chemistry, although I suspect that Brown will play a more and more dominant role as the election date fast approaches.

Although Britain will have to face a referendum on the European constitutional treaty, I do not see foreign affairs playing such an important role in this campaign. This should suit Labour fine on two counts – because the chance of a successful Euro constitutional treaty referendum vote are still slim and because Labour would like to avoid being reminded of its Iraqi war baggage.

The three main ingredients of the campaign should be economic stability, the NHS and education, particularly as immigration issues have suddenly found themselves on the slide.

Ultimately, it will all boil down to keeping the Tories out, rather than necessarily voting Labour in, although on the basis of its domestic policies it deserves to be re-elected once more.

One hopes that a new Labour government will not become as arrogant as PSOE became in Gonzales’s days when they became the “natural” government of Spain, with hardly any serious opposition to reckon with. On this basis, a reduced majority could keep Labour more on its toes and ensure that it will resort to a more user-friendly approach when implementing certain policies and measures.

I say so in the foreknowledge that if asked the simple question as to whom do the Brits want to govern the country, I am sure that they will opt for Labour.

Many are anticipating that, although there will be a contrast in styles and venues during this campaign, there will be a similarity in what the three leaders will say about hospitals, schools and the economy – although obviously from a different perspective.

Blair’s ultimate trump card will be that he has resorted to high-risk strategies in the past and managed to come through relatively unscathed.

If I had to bet my money, I am confident that he will do the same this time around too.

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Leo Brincat is the main opposition spokesman on Foreign Affairs and IT