Among the 115 cardinals who enter the Conclave tomorrow to elect a new Pope, there is one who, in Robert Mickens’ words in The Tablet, although “is recognised as the giant of the College of Cardinals” will most probably not be elected Pope.

This is Carlo Maria Martini, the 78-year-old Jesuit scripture scholar, who retired as Archbishop of Milan and has been living off and on in Jerusalem for the past three years. He is rumoured to have health problems and some have whispered he has Parkinson’s Disease.

Cardinal Martini is thus one of the very restricted few “kingmakers” in the Conclave – respected figures who probably don’t have a chance but can strongly influence the voting .

Apart from Cardinal Martini, other ‘kingmakers’ could be Cardinal Angelo Sodano (Secretary of State under John Paul II) and Giovanni Battista Re (headed the Congregation for Bishops), Cardinal Camillo Ruini, 74, Vicar of Rome, Jean-Marie Lustiger, 78, former Archbishop of Paris.

But the prime ‘kingmaker’ in tomorrow’s Conclave is Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (who headed the Vatican’s doctrinal office).At 78, Cardinal Ratzinger is a commanding figure but many say he has far too conservative to be Pope. The Italian media, however, has been speculating this could still be a “German Conclave” whereby individuals and different groupings might line up behind either Ratzinger himself or the moderate Walter Kasper, 72.

The names of Tettamanzi from Milan, Hummes from Sao Paulo, Arinze from Nigeria, Dias from Bombay have been mentioned by all the world’s papers. They are the leading “papabili” – or at least the men many people think stand the best chance of succeeding Pope John Paul II. But there is an old Roman saying: “He who goes into a conclave already the Pope, comes out a cardinal.”

In the absence of anything more tangible, while waiting for that famous puff of white smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney, others remember an equally old Roman adage: A fat Pope follows a skinny one. In 1978, when two conclaves were held within seven weeks, the adage had a twist to it: a healthy Pope was elected to follow a sick one.

Only three of the 115 have ever voted to elect a Pope before – Ratzinger himself, William Baum of the US and Jaime Sin of the Philippines whose failing health has not allowed him to travel to Rome. For the others, this will be a new experience.

But although they were all created Cardinals by the late Pope, this does not mean they are clones of John Paul II, nor will they elect a clone of Karol Wojtyla.

Over the past years they have quietly been preparing themselves for the coming eventful days. Many of them already know each other and have been assessing the qualities of the possible candidates. Over the past years, as John Paul’s health became progressively weaker, they have met for quiet meals, or a cup of coffee, or a glass of Scotch, not only on a one to one basis but with others too.

Some make much of the age issue. Given that the last pontificate was so long and made such a profound impact on the world, a number of cardinals have been hinting at a transitional pontificate, which would favour the election of an older man, someone for instance, in his seventies.

Many speak of nationality or geographic issues. Some argue that Karol Wojtyla broke the nationality barrier for ever, but others argue that it is time now to revert to an Italian Pope. Regardless of where he comes from, however, it seems difficult to image a Bishop of Rome who cannot speak Italian.

A cardinal needs two-thirds of the vote (at present, 78) in order to be elected. But there is no particular region or clear voting block that appears able to back a candidate without forging an alliance with other groups.

Broken down geographically, the 58 European cardinals make up the single largest block of voters. Italy remains the country with the most electors, at 20.

Latin America has 21 cardinals, North America has 14 (11 in the US), Asia and Africa have 11 each.

Looking at the composition from a different angle, the Roman Curia has 27 cardinals, a formidable and influential group.

International pressures

The presence of over 200 world leaders at the funeral of John Paul II revealed the immense importance the Papacy has acquired in today’s world.

Although the last time world powers had any say in the election of a pope was before the election of Pope Pius X when a veto blocked Cardinal Rampolla from becoming Pope, world leaders are very much interested who becomes the next Pope.

Relations between the Vatican and the US lately passed through some stormy days, with what were called ‘pacifist’ declarations by the then Vatican observer to the UN, Renato Martino, and the opposition by Cardinal Jean-Louis Touran, then the Vatican’s Foreign Minister, to George W Bush’s attack on Iraq. The key people on the Vatican side have been changed now, but the Vatican’s criticism still rankles.

According to Pino Buongiorno on Panorama, although Bush does not have his preferred candidate, Catholic circles around him speak of Cardinal Kasper as a defender of Western integrity against Russian orthodoxy and against rampant Islamism. Cardinal Kasper is also considered to be in favour of more democracy in the Middle East, which today has become one of President Bush’s key issues.

It is significant, wrote Ignazio Ingrao in Panorama, that President Bush met the 11 US cardinals when he was in Rome for the Pope’s funeral.

As for President Putin, his dream would be a Pope without world ambitions, a Pope who focuses on doctrinal issues. Cardinal Martino, 73, who heads the Justitia et Pax council or Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 71, seem favoured.

As for President Jacques Chirac, it is said he prefers a Pope from the Third World, such as the hugely popular Cardinal Francis Arinze, 72 or the younger Oscar Andres Rodriguez Madariaga from Honduras. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has been reported to be interested only in a Pope who was born in Germany, such as Cardinal Ratzinger, or German speaking like Cardinal Christoph Schonborn, 60, “the man of the future”, or even Cardinal Claudio Hummes, 70, the leader of the biggest diocese in the world, Sao Paulo, who has German parents.

Hummes, a Franciscan, is seen as doctrinally and morally strict but has been a strong advocate for the poor and dispossessed and a powerful evangelist among his six-million strong diocese.

The Muslim world would love a Pope that carries on John Paul’s good relations with Islam, certainly not Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, thought to be too close to Judaism, better someone like the former head of Vatican diplomacy, Cardinal Achille Silvestrini.

Internal Church politics

Whatever the external pressures on the Cardinals, the real power breakers are the religious lobbies.

The most important one is certainly that of the Latin American bishops who see this as the best occasion ever they have to put their representative at the head of the Church. This lobby seems to be focusing on Cardinal Hummes or Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 68, Archbishop of Buenos Aires, a Jesuit with a profound and charismatic spirituality.

The second most important lobby is Opus Dei, which is headed by Cardinal Julian Herranz, a Curia cardinal, who is said to be pulling strings to ensure the Church has a conservative Pope. Since Peruvian cardinal Juan Luis Cipriani does not seem to stand much of a chance, Opus Dei is said to be coalescing its support behind Milan’s cardinal, Dionigi Tettamanzi, 70, or Cardinal Bergoglio.

According to Stephen Bates, the religious affairs correspondent of The Guardian, a dark-horse candidate for Pope, capable of bridging the divide between the Europeans and the Latin American cardinals, appears to be emerging in the shape of the Patriarch of Portugal, Jose da Cruz Policarpo.

He is said to be a formidable thinker, a real intellectual, and very good on the issues affecting European culture. If elected Pope, he will be “the first cigarette-smoking pope”. He has spent most of his career at the Portuguese Catholic University and has spoken out against human rights abuses in East Timor and Mozambique. He is also reported to be close to the Comunita di Sant’Egidio.

According to both Henri Tincq in Le Monde and Ignazio Ingrao in Panorama, the Italian vote is split between Cardinal Tettamanzi, considered to be a moderate reformer and Angelo Scola, 63, Patriarch of Venice, near Communione e Liberazione while Ennio Antonelli, 68, Archbishop of Florence, is considered close to the Focolarini, a spiritual man on the mould of John Paul I (Albino Luciani) and open to dialogue with Islam.

It is worthy to note that Poland and East Europe do not seem to figure among the oppressing issues for this conclave. But what seems good in one area of the world may seem bad on the other. Cardinal Dias is said to be a conservative with strong views on homosexuality, but one must see this in the context of India, where homosexuality is opposed by all religions.

The signs are, The Guardian wrote yesterday, that Brazilian Catholics want the new pope to adapt to new social realities.

“The conservative tendency has led to the appearance of groups like Opus Dei, the Charismatic movement, etc where Christians who are mostly papists, infantilised and adulatory, thrive,” says Leonardo Boff, Brazil’s best-known liberation theologian. “They cultivate a merely ritual and devotionalised Christianity insensitive to questions of justice and humanity.”

According to the Italian press (La Repubblica, Corriere della Sera) the foremost candidate still remains Cardinal Ratzinger, who is already assured of 40 to 50 votes as the “candidate of continuity”. If that is true, he is still tantalisingly still so near and yet so far from the 78 he needs, which leads one to speculate that this leak to the press may have come from those sectors who do not want him elected pope.

According to the Corriere della Sera, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini rose to speak at one of last week’s pre-conclave meetings of the Cardinals and was listened to with great attention, because of his reputation for great wisdom.

He spoke on behalf of those who want a “sweet change” in the Church. He insisted on the need for more collegiality, as promoted by Vatican Council II and that on issues such as the family, medical ethics, and sexuality the Church must find a new language with which to speak to the world of today. He also insisted on the need for a relaunched dialogue with Protestants, Anglicans and the Orthodox Church.

The Polish Pope has left many challenges for the Church ad intra that his successor will not be able to ignore the crucial need for more priests, de-centralisation of the Roman Curia, more effective methods of collegiality, a greater role for women in governance, greater discussion about a pastoral plan for the divorced, etc.

“However glorious John Paul’s reign may have been in many respects,” wrote Andrew Greeley, a Catholic priest, sociologist and author, “it is hard to interpret the empirical data any other way: his successor will inherit a polarised and fractured Church, but one made up of hundreds of millions of loyal Catholics who will not leave, even if the leadership tries to throw them out.

“Throughout Europe, North America and Australasia, the majority of Catholic populations stubbornly refused to change their minds on matters such as birth control, premarital sex, in vitro fertilisation and married clergy. Moreover, Catholic attitudes in the last quarter-century seem to have moved further from those on which the Pope insisted. As

The Tablet remarked, the Pope aborted reform in the Church. A sociologist is tempted to say, he could at least have given it more of a chance.”