“India is not just a country but a sub-continent…” – India’s High Commissioner for Malta D.P. Srivastava.

One of the most interesting conversations I had in recent months was a lengthy meeting with India’s High Commissioner for Malta, who is based in Tripoli.

Apart from discussing the potential that bilateral relations offer, we dealt at length with India’s potential economic growth in the coming years.

While modestly pointing out that India is not just a country but a sub-continent, the ambassador referred me to a recent study by the Rand Corporation and the CIA, which deals at length with India’s future development prospects.

It was commissioned by the US National Intelligence Council and confirms most of the conclusions that certain contemporary authors and journalists have been reaching when writing about the threats, challenges and opportunities of globalisation.

The study begins by making the important prediction that the likely emergence of China and India as new major global players – similar to the rise of Germany in the 19th century and the United States in the early 20th century – will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those of the previous two centuries.

It states that in the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the “American Century”, the early 21st century may be seen as the time when some in the developing world, led by China and India, come into their own.

No wonder that many are predicting that “arriviste” powers like China, India and Brazil could “usher in a new set of international alignments, potentially marking a definitive break with some of the post World War II institutions and practices”.

Such a prediction could derail itself only should an abrupt reversal of the process of globalisation or a major upheaval in these countries prevent their rise.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations, projected by the US census bureau to be 1.4 billion and 1.3 billion respectively by 2020, their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers.

Although India currently lags behind China on most economic measures, most economists believe it also will sustain high levels of economic growth. China’s emergence could only be slowed should it undergo and experience economic setbacks and crises of confidence.

Like China, India will be an economic magnet for the region, and its rise will have an impact not only in Asia but also from Central Asia to the Middle East.

India seeks to bolster regional cooperation both for strategic reasons and because of its desire to increase its leverage with the West, including in such organisations as the WTO.

It is not unlikely that as India’s economy grows, governments in Southeast Asia may move closer to India to help build a potential geopolitical counterweight to China. At the same time, India will seek to strengthen its ties with countries in the region, without excluding China.

Goldman Sachs and other experts predict that Chinese-Indian bilateral trade could rise rapidly in the coming years.

Three reasons why India might overtake China as the fastest growing economy in the world are the following factors:

a) Its working age population will continue to increase well into the 2020s, whereas, due to the one-child policy, China’s will diminish and age quite rapidly;

b) India has well entrenched democratic institutions;

c) India possesses working capital markets and world class firms in some important high-tech sectors, which China has yet to achieve.

With economic growth hovering between six to eight per cent, and expected to surpass seven per cent next year, the Indians refer to past growth rates as Hindu growth rates of two to three per cent, considering them as they do as representing the legacy of a stifling bureaucracy

Malta’s foreign policy decision-makers would do well to keep such considerations in mind.

That is beyond the confines of the EU.

While trying to maximise the benefits and minimise the pitfalls of our membership of the EU, if we really believe in long-term planning rather than in the short-term variety that has characterised recent governments, we should plan ahead with the ever-changing scenario kept well in mind.

Those who dismiss lightly the threat of such developments are people stuck in time. We should turn such “threats” into challenges and opportunities.

The Commonwealth Summit

The Labour Party was not so petty as to dismiss such an opportunity lightly. But, as it was duty bound to do, it pointed out that there were two important considerations to keep in mind.

a) that deeper thought should have been given to such a commitment in view of our dire financial situation before actually taking the plunge to go ahead with the project;

b) whether the budgetary allocation for 2005 makes sense or is actually expected to fall far short of the actual expenses due to be incurred.

A statement to the effect that we could have already committed ourselves to spending more funds than actually budgeted for was not only played down by the local pro-Nationalist media but was countered by a rosy statement by the organisers singing the praises of the benefits of such an event.

While wishing Malta every success in the organisation of such an event, we still hope that answers to our two ticklish questions will be provided in the coming days rather than when it is too late.

Let us also hope that the Maltese government will maximise the potential that can be derived from such an event in terms of industrial, touristic and cultural spin-offs, while keeping the cost-effective factor well in mind.

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Chiara does us proud

I must confess that I am no Eurovision buff. As a festival, its mediocrity has invariably left me cold over the years, but I have always supported Maltese contestants, through thick and thin, out of what must be a strong nationalistic feeling hidden in us all.

This time round angel-voiced Chiara did us proud, with a gimmick-free performance where she did not even need any bouncy and energetic dancers or swaying back-up vocalists.

She had an excellent self-penned ballad that enabled her to cover the full range of her voice. This apart, she showed confidence throughout, offering a breath of fresh air in sharp contrast with a number of entrants who seemed mainly interested in emulating and imitating the frantic style of last year’s Ukrainian winner.The Eurovision might not mean to others what it does to us Maltese – bringing us together in a tidal wave of all-round support. So much so, that other countries like Italy do not even bother to participate any more at all. But for a small island like ours, with limited opportunities for our ever-growing crop of young vocal and musical artists, the Eurovision retains a magnetic pull that might leave others bored and indifferent. A two-time near winner, Chiara made all the difference.

She no doubt merits all the praise and accolades that are being showered upon her this week and beyond!

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