The recent French Revolution and the Revolt of the Dutch, on the occasion of two separate referenda, amounted to a wake-up call by the polis, in each case the disenchanted electorate.

Opinions differ on what has disenchanted the French and Dutch electorate, but there seems to be unanimity on one of the factors that has been simmering for some time.

While progressive forces in the industrialised countries stand up against racism, they are being challenged, if not overwhelmed, by the rising tide of resentment against the immigration wave from the “poorer” to the “richer” countries.

Imponderables

These are manifestations of the great global changes underway and all of them are likely to have a profound effect on the destiny of millions of people. These changes may yet lead to the decline and fall of nations and to imponderables that come with economic and political transformation.

The distinguished American strategic historian, Paul Kennedy, author of The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, published in l988, followed his study by what is likely to be his magnum opus, suggesting how political leaders should manage change and avoid the worst. His thoughts are paraded in his book aptly titled Preparing for the Twenty-first Century which was published in l994.

Kennedy recalled the pessimistic prognostications of Thomas Malthus, anticipating a population explosion that was expected to threaten England’s prosperity in the l9th century. Malthus was proved wrong by history, simply because he did not foresee the monumental changes that followed the publication of his treatise in l798.

Changed Circumstances

The industrial revolution brought about abundant wealth that could sustain a growing population.

There was a massive migration from Europe and agricultural productivity increased sufficiently to feed the expanding population.

This time, things are different. The present day demographic explosion is causing massive population growth in poor countries, as well as massive migration to the rich ones.

World trade is in the hands of multi-national business institutions and financial transactions are globalised. Industry is being transformed by robotics which increase and enhance productivity but cut jobs.

Biotechnology continues to transform agriculture. But the natural environment is being degraded and, in some cases, destroyed. The sum total of human activity is suspected of damaging the ozone layer, with potentially grave consequences to man’s future.

The technological progress achieved in rich countries exposes the poor countries to additional disadvantages.

The enterprising youth of Third World countries is “invading” the rich countries with their aging populations.

New Tensions

The pressure of population explosions in poor countries will accelerate a brain drain and spur more migrants towards the richer countries.

This has brought new tensions in the countries of the “North”.

Whereas the l9th century migration was directed towards the undeveloped expanses of the new world, this time, immigration is overwhelming established societies and is causing evident disruption.

The erosion of nation states, arising from the emergence of powerful international or supranational regimes, and the materialisation of the global village and cross-border communications, are likely to make it more difficult for various governments to meet the new challenges or to perform their traditional role.

This pessimistic Kennedy view has the potential of eventually influencing the growth of the forces of isolationism in the USA in particular.

Algebra of History

Kennedy’s prophecies may conceivably be proved wrong, if the unanticipated or the unimaginable will alter the algebra of history.

In this 2lst century, nation states and their political leaders may resist trans-national trends. The restrictions being imposed by European and some Asian nations on immigration may very well be a manifestation of this resistance.

Such resistance will depend on the capabilities and choices of political leaders, and may either be formal or legal (as in the United States today) or disorganised and with tinges of hostility and violence.

A clampdown on the free movement of labour may well be accompanied by restrictions on the free movement of capi-tal.

The increasing economic interdependence of the European Union may be modified by new necessities, such as the reimposition of controls over national economies in case of crisis.

Solutions

One way out of the seemingly snowballing problem is to provide poor countries with the means of purchasing the products of rich ones. The so-called Uruguay Round was a step in this direction. The scaling down of the EU Common Agricultural Policy, so fiercely resisted by France, would create an environment and a level playing field favourable to third world farmers.

The stubborn resistance of vested interests in France and elsewhere highlights the intractable nature of the problems that come with upheavals and change.

The answer, in this case, would take the form of an imaginative bargain between the rich nations and the poorest ones to bring the technology of the rich to bear on the upgrading of the knowledge and skills of the poor, on the industrialisation of vast stretches of Asian and Africa, and the implementation of the environmental standards needed in the interest of humanity.

Determining Factors

The positive interest shown by the G8 heads of state in wiping out the debts of the world’s poorest countries will add momentum to efforts being made in this direction.

The Kennedy predictions were, by their very nature, tentative prophecies.

Uncertainty could not be adequately budgeted for – although planning, programming and careful policy-making may help canalise or contain the course of events in certain circumstances.

It is the resourcefulness and resilience of political leaders, the cooperation and discipline of their followers, and the endurance and the will of the people that will be the ultimate determining factors when nations come to keep their appointment with destiny.

In the case of the French and Dutch electorates, the people did not keep the appointment with their leaders.

They had their reasons. Will their aspirations be met?

What will be the shape of things to come?

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