I have been swamped by people over the past few weeks asking me how I see the forthcoming season panning out.

Will Chelsea retain their title? Will Arsenal mount a serious challenge? Can Manchester United return to the glory days? Will Newcastle have any players left after Souness’ first full season in charge?

Well, never having been one to shy away from sticking my neck on the line I have spent a few considered hours weighing up the issue and have come to a few potentially controversial conclusions.

The first, and possibly most outrageous of them, is that Chelsea will not retain their title. Yes, I know, that goes against both common sense and popular opinion, but I don’t make this statement lightly.

There is method behind the madness. I have been looking at the overall situation amongst the top clubs and have decided that the title race is going to be so much tighter this year than last.

Mourinho did a fantastic job last season in breaking Chelsea’s 50 year duck. But a lot of his success was built on siege mentality management – ‘us against the rest of world’ sort of thing.

While that, combined with limitless funding and a fantastic squad, will certainly buy you a season of joy, I have my doubts as to whether it is a long-term recipe for success.

There is, quite obviously, no arguing with Chelsea’s achievements last time round and Mourinho was the man who pulled the whole thing together. He was a new arrival. The managers who had been plying their trade in the Premiership for years like Sir Alex and Wenger did not know what to expect from the Portuguese motor-mouth.

But a year on they will be prepared better, they will know a bit more about his tactics and his psychological warfare techniques. He will no longer have the element of surprise on his side.

That’s not to say I see the Stamford Bridge team having a bad season. I think they will at least win a domestic cup and, quite probably, the Champions League as well. But I still see them missing out on the league.

Which brings me to the burning question. If it isn’t Chelsea then who will it be?

The obvious contenders are two. United and Arsenal. Then there are the outsiders like Liverpool, Everton and possibly Tottenham. But, in reality I think we all know the only teams genuinely capable of taking the title away from Jose are United and Arsenal.

But which one, in my mind at least, will it be?

Well, United have problems. There can be no doubt about that. Ferguson, for all his achievements, reminds me too much of Bobby Robson last season. A wise old man who no longer has the inner strength to control his young upstarts.

There has been plenty of unrest at Old Trafford, both in football terms and in the boardroom. Player fights, contract disputes and training pitch arguments have added to the uncertainty created by the hostile takeover and the fan demonstrations.

None of these things points to United having the best of seasons on the pitch although there is still more than enough quality in the squad to make things happen.

But my team for the year is Arsenal. They may not have reinforced like they would have liked and they may take a little time to readjust following the departure of Vieira, but overall they remain my favourites for the title.

Arsene Wenger is a shrewd man. He may not have Mourinho’s natural team building ability or Ferguson’s fiery personality but he is what I like to call a thinking man’s football manager.

He knows where Arsenal went wrong last season and has had plenty of time to sort out the problems and work on shoring up his leaky defence. He knows what his stars and youngsters are capable of and he will be working right now to maximise everyone’s potential.

And with this being Arsenal’s last season at Highbury, both him and his team have an added incentive to give 110 per cent in every match as they bid to leave the historic ground on a high.

So, it’s Arsenal for champions, Chelsea as runners-up and Man United to finish a very close third with possibly no more than five or six points separating the three of them.

But what of the other end of the table? Who will ultimately lose the battle to stay up? Well, as usual the three promoted clubs will be everyone’s favourites for the drop – Sunderland, West Ham and Wigan.

And, for the most part, I would agree. However, I do think that maybe, just maybe, West Ham might be able to pull something out of the bad. Sunderland and Wigan will go down. But Mick Mcarthy might just be able to pull off a great escape and, if he does, I think it will be West Brom who suffer.

They themselves pulled off a Houdini-like escape last season but Robson has not really set the world alight during the summer and a team that struggled last year is hardly likely to do anything else this time without some major rebuilding which simply hasn’t happened.

The rest of the Premiership will be locked in the usual mid-table battle, some going for Europe, others fighting to stay out of the relegation battle, Newcastle struggling to find 11 players still on speaking terms with the boss... But my final table reads like this:

Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd, Tottenham, Liverpool, Man City, Everton, Middlesbrough, Bolton, Aston Villa, Blackburn, Newcastle, Charlton, Birmingham, West Ham, Fulham, Portsmouth, West Brom, Sunderland, Wigan.

So there you have it. Another season, another optimistic gaze into the old crystal ball. I could be completely wrong of course, and Wigan may win the league and Arsenal get relegated. But I think not.

Disagree? Then let me know. I am always willing to listen to criticism. But, unlike Mourinho, make yours constructive...

Contact James on: the

[email protected]