As the European Union grapples with the potential threat of avian influenza, more commonly known as bird flu, that could be brought across the EU’s borders by migratory birds, local and European authorities are downplaying the possibility.

A recent outbreak of bird flu in Russia has sparked concern in the EU of a possible influx of the disease from its large eastern neighbour. Bird flu viruses pose no immediate threat to humans, but the fear is that they could mutate into strains that are deadly to, and easily spread among, humans. Most flu pandemics are known to originate from bird flu viruses.

A spokesperson for the Rural Affairs and Environment Ministry, speaking to The Malta Independent on Sunday, confirmed that Malta “is currently basing its risk assessment on the advice given by scientific experts in Brussels yesterday (Thursday 25 August)”.

At the meeting, leading veterinary officials from the EU’s 25 Member States declared that the risk of bird flu spreading to the EU was “remote or low” but also expressed “serious concern” and agreed on steps to reduce the risk of the virus spreading to the EU. These include bolstering the surveillance of migratory birds in line with a surveillance system put in place across the EU in 2003.

Brussels has pledged additional funding for member States to step up their efforts and Malta is expected to receive its share of additional funding.

In this respect Malta has submitted its survey plan for avian influenza in poultry and turkey flocks to the to the EU’s Health and Consumer Protection Directorate General, which is in the process of reviewing Malta’s needs. It is thought that the EU is to release some Lm1 million in funding across the member States in a bid to increase their surveillance operations during the upcoming migratory season.

Malta lies on a main migratory path, or flyway, for many species of wild birds making their way from northern Europe to Africa for the winter. Wild birds are often carriers of low pathogenic strains of the virus without showing any symptoms, and contact between domestic flocks and wild migratory birds has been the cause of many epidemics in poultry.

“In September, the surveillance will coincide with the migratory period of wild birds,” the Ministry spokesperson explained. “Farmers have been reminded avian influenza symptoms are, a biosecurity document has been drawn up and inspections of farms are being carried out on a regular basis.

“All farms are registered with the Food and Veterinary Regulation Division and movement permits are issued. Furthermore, border controls are carried out and any reports are immediately investigated.”

Asked whether precautionary measures are expected to be introduced in the near future the Ministry commented, “Malta will be following the situation closely and, depending on the situation, the authorities will take the measures necessary to safeguard the Maltese Islands.”

Over the past years Malta’s surveillance programme has been in line with the EU Directive. Blood samples have been taken from farms across the islands and were tested locally using the IDEXX kit for avian influenza, while confirmatory tests were carried out at the Veterinary Laboratories Agency in the UK (the EU’s reference laboratory for avian influenza). All samples submitted from Maltese farms have come back negative.

The highly virulent H5N1 strain of the disease has, since 2003 has led to the death or destruction of more than 125 million birds in southeast Asia, and is proving difficult to eradicate. This particular strain has the potential of being converted into a full-blown flu pandemic, should it be transferred to humans. Thankfully, the highly pathogenic strain kills all birds it comes in contact with and, as such, it is generally thought that wild birds would not be able to spread the strain across continents as they migrate.

In the EU, major outbreaks of the disease occurred in Italy in 1999, in The Netherlands in 2003, with incidences in Belgium and Germany. The outbreak in The Netherlands led to the destruction of some 30 million birds and had a direct economic toll of over €150 million.

Risk of bird flu low in EU, say experts

A group of experts from across the EU concluded on Thursday that the risk of the deadly bird flu reaching the Union in the immediate future is “remote or low”.

Gathering to assess the possibility of the bird flu reaching the EU from Russia as well as the unilateral measure of enclosing all poultry taken by The Netherlands, the experts felt there was not enough evidence to say whether the virus is being spread by migratory birds.

Despite a presentation by the Netherlands, they also felt that “a general ban on keeping poultry outdoors to be a disproportionate measure at this time”.

“Taking into account existing knowledge of the migratory routes of the species of birds that might pose a risk of spreading the virus, the group concluded that the immediate risk is probably remote or low,” the commission said in a summarising statement after the meeting.

However, the meeting did conclude that surveillance of domestic and wild birds across member States should be stepped up.

It also recommended that national contingency plans should be reviewed and that there should be awareness programmes for farmers.

Vaccination of birds would be considered for high-risk situations and border checks would be tightened to avoid the import of infected birds, the Commission said.

It also indicated that poultry might be labelled to indicate to consumers that it did not come from areas known to have been exposed to bird flu.

The EU has been closely following the outbreak of bird flu in Russia – particularly since Moscow confirmed that the strain is H5N1, the strain that killed around 50 people in Asia.

The European Commission has already banned poultry imports from nine southeast Asian countries and extended the ban to Russia and Kazakhstan earlier this month.

It feels that for the time being this measure is sufficient, a sentiment shared by most member States, particularly Britain and France.

The Netherlands, on the other hand, fears a repeat of the scenario in 2003 when it had to cull around 30 million of its birds causing €150 million in direct costs.

This fear is partially shared by Germany, which has indicated it will impose similar measures to those undertaken by the Dutch by mid September if the virus continues to move west.

The main general fear is that the virus could mutate into something easily transmissible between humans – which is not the case so far.

In this case, experts fear a quick-spreading global pandemic.

The European Commission has said it is working with national governments on improving plans for stocking anti-viral medicines.

For its part, the World Health Organisation has just signed a deal with a Swiss pharmaceutical company to build up its stockpile of medicines in case of a pandemic in humans

World slow to face bird flu threat

Plans for a global response to a mass outbreak of bird flu in humans are taking shape, but are far from complete.

Public health experts and epidemiologists are issuing shrill warnings about the dangers a pandemic would pose to human health around the world.

Any confirmation that the H5N1 bird flu virus has become capable of human-to-human transmission will send the World Health Organisation's (WHO) pandemic alert level, currently at Level 3, soaring towards the highest state of danger, Level 6.

Air travel could be among the first casualties of a global panic as governments try to prevent the disease spreading.

“There may be some small restrictions imposed in the early days of a pandemic,” Dick Thompson of the WHO said last week.

“But they will fail, because infected people will not yet be showing symptoms.”

While emergency services in many countries train regularly to cope with major terror attacks, convincing national governments to draw up and implement expensive plans for disease containment is proving hard work.

Just 40 governments around the world have submitted plans for dealing with a pandemic to the WHO.

The majority of those are wealthy western nations – not the Asian countries where the H5N1 avian influenza virus has taken hold and killed 57 people.

The detection of bird flu in Russia has jolted European nations to action, fearful that migration patterns could spread the virus westwards.

Tamsin Rose, secretary general of the European Public Health Alliance, which represents 115 European NGOs in Brussels, fears that a lack of planning could undermine efforts to contain the virus.

“There needs to be clear guidance on what civil society needs to do,” she said

“Which key workers are needed to help out? Will schools be closed and turned into triage centres? How ready are we for this effort? We can't see our members getting ready for this.”

Indeed, experts trying to forecast the outbreak of a human pandemic are still focusing on southeast Asia, not Europe or North America.

In a recent simulation designed to assess the likelihood of containing an outbreak in that region, scientists concluded that the bird flu virus could be contained by rapid identification of the source of infection, combined with quick and intensive distribution of anti-viral drugs.

An international stockpile of anti-viral drugs should be established to enable rapid distribution in the event of an outbreak, the study said.

The findings, published in the journal Nature at the start of August, were broadly welcomed by the WHO.

In response, pharmaceutical giant Roche has pledged to make three million courses of its anti-viral drug Tamiflu available to the organisation.

Distributing them effectively is another matter. Thus far, agreement extends to a “promise” from Roche to ship the drugs to an international airport near the outbreak.

On the ground, mankind's fight against a potentially deadly virus will fall into the hands of highly skilled volunteers.

With little manpower of its own, the WHO operates a worldwide volunteer known as the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network.

Small teams of epidemiologists, database managers, intensive care staff and other experts can quickly be deployed to try to control an outbreak.

After the initial “firefighting”, though, responsibility must rest with national governments. If a pandemic develops, the WHO warns, relying on volunteers will be pointless.

Secondary clusters of infection are unlikely to receive anti-viral drugs from any international stockpile, and governments will have to rely on their own supplies.

In any case, those drugs already developed are unlikely to be entirely equipped to quell an outbreak of a mutated form of H5N1. An effective vaccine could take six months to develop once any new strain is identified.

“We keep encouraging countries to develop a plan because a pandemic is inevitable,” Dick Thompson said, warning that between two million and seven million people around the world could die.

Tamsin Rose of EPHA is less circumspect.

“Millions and millions would die, and a pandemic would change society as we know it,” she said. “And no-one seems prepared.”