The season may only just have started but we are already into our first two-week break as countries battle it out for a place in next year’s World Cup.

England face Wales in Cardiff today in what should, on paper, be an easy contest but which will, I feel, turn out to be anything but.

Lacking the suspended Michael Owen, Sven has apparently decided not to play Jermaine Defoe but, instead, reshuffle the whole team into my least liked formation: 4-5-1.

Obviously taking his lead from Sir Alex and Jose, Sven has gone for this system which will either work magnificently or send England tumbling towards another Denmark-style debacle.

The plan is, apparently, to play Beckham as a defensive midfielder (?) behind Lampard and Gerrard, with Joe Cole and Wright Philips on the wings and Rooney alone up front.

It’s one of those formations that sounds interesting on paper but can easily turn into an absolute nightmare on the pitch.

Wales are struggling to find their feet at the moment under John Toshack and are certain of missing out on next year’s finals. Yet pride means a lot to the Welsh and playing in front of their home crowd they will anything but pushovers.

Meanwhile, the other match I am keeping an eye on will take place further up the UK where Scotland host group leaders Italy. Under Walter Smith they have become a much more coherent side and should be able to give the Italians more of a run for their money than they may expect.

The Scots still lack any true world class players but at least they have got the passion back that was all but totally absent under Bertie Vogts. Should be an interesting encounter.

So, here are my predictions. Both games to finish in tight 2-1 victories for the away sides. So you know who to put your money on.

Transfers

Not a lot to get excited about in terms of transfers this week, unless you happen to support Newcastle or Tottenham.

The window slammed shut at midnight on Wednesday and there was the usual last minute rush to snap up players by clubs all over Europe.

But, as far as the Premier League was concerned at least, the only big thrills came in the form of Owen finalising his move to Newcastle and Jenas moving to Spurs to help finance the former.

If little Mickey had any doubts about what sort of welcome he would receive at St James Park after publicly announcing he would prefer a move to Liverpool, they must have been well and truly washed away by his reception.

The stunning scenes in Newcastle, where more than 20,000 fans turned up to watch him sign his four-year contract, must have brought tears to Owen’s eyes.

Many clubs in England can’t attract that many fans to a top league match but the passion and desire among the Toon Army saw them turn out in droves to welcome their new hero. On a working day at that!

In terms of being loved and playing first team football in this, a World Cup season, Michael could not have made a better decision in my opinion. It’s obvious he will be adored on Tyneside and the lack of decent – any – strikers at the club mean he should be the first name on the teamsheet week in, week out.

There are, obviously, question marks over whether he has joined a club whose ability to actually win something matches his own ambitions. But his very presence there should help the whole team overcome their trophy drought.

Meanwhile, Jenas left Newcastle for Spurs in a move that has been inevitable for many weeks now. Why on earth he would want to join a club which already has about 37 midfielders is quite beyond me, but he must have been assured of some regular football in order to make the swap.

The rest of the transfer news was something of a damp squib. Solano moving back to Newcastle from Aston Villa probably being the weirdest move while Arsenal signing Sunderland third choice goalkeeper Matt Poom on loan was probably the least expected.

As for my own team, well, apparently we tried to sign three different strikers from three different clubs. And they all said no thanks.

Who needs ’em anyway? We have made it to the top of the Championship without them and we will stay there without them.

How’s that for tempting fate...?

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