Government and opposition have found another point of political/ideological convergence, (apart from their mutual ignorance of the primacy of human rights and the establishment of pathetic electoral thresholds), in the belief in the inevitability of promoting golf. The supposed, but as yet unproven, economic benefits that would be reaped from the building of a number of golf courses have turned golf into both government and opposition’s newest economic “sacred cow”. They both behave as if our country will go bust if golf courses are not fast-tracked through planning procedures.

In fighting this crusade, government has lost any credibility it may have assumed it had as a champion of the environment. When the Prime Minister, flanked by (understandably) the Tourism Minister and (shockingly) the Environment Minister, recently declared that he had located the ideal spot for the building of a golf course, without presenting any studies whatsoever, he effectively declared his complete disregard towards our country’s environment and ecology, as well as utter disdain for proper planning due-diligence. It was the equivalent of having Tony Blair sit in front of a BBC camera and declare that he would flatten the Yorkshire Dales to accommodate the building of a dozen cricket fields. When Alfred Sant, some weeks later, managed to declare himself against the building of the golf course in Xaghra il-Hamra without ever referring to environmental issues, he effectively joined his party at the hip to the political tribe of eco-philistines.

Both government and opposition know that they will lose the environmental/ecological arguments on the golf courses they are proposing. The argument has already been lost after a ten year battle over the Rabat golf course. When they will lose the eco-arguments (again) they will resort to the oldest trick in their political book. They will say that the economic pros outweigh the ecological cons – don’t they always? They will attempt to seduce enough of us to succumb to their economic “nirvana”. NET and Super1 will compete (most certainly at election time) to broadcast blue and red dreams of above average economic growth, exponential arrivals of five-star tourists and neo-liberal trickle-down economic benefits that will be enjoyed by the masses – remember the 400 jobs that were promised from the establishment of the marina in Cottonera? In our mad political mire, it is even possible for golf to become a key electoral issue. My job here is to question the economic logic. Here goes.

Government has stated that golf will result in an increase of 30,000 tourists per annum. Since nobody in government, tourism or golf has substantiated this figure, I have attempted some reverse engineering on that figure myself. Let us assume (to the horror or many) that government, whether PN or MLP, will build a golf course at Xaghra il-Hamra and one at Ta’ Cenc. Further let us assume that the existing one in Marsa will be extended: a project I am in principle not against, apart from the need to find better premises for the other sports facilities available at Marsa. Then Malta will have three 18-hole golf courses. Next it is essential to compute how many rounds of golf can be played in one year. Luckily, Royal Malta Golf Club general manager Tony Bonello supplied the figures in a recent interview for a local magazine. He said that based on the norm of having three golfers tee-off every 15 minutes for seven hours per day throughout the year, an 18-hole golf course can host up to 29,400 rounds of golf per annum – let’s round that up to 30,000 rounds per golf course, per annum.

Now we must remember that golf is being sold on the argument that it will increase tourist arrivals in the shoulder months. Let us be generous and assume that the shoulder months extend from October to June, a whole nine months. That translates into a reduction from 30,000 rounds to 22,500 rounds of golf on each golf course. With three courses, a total of 67,500 rounds can be played. Before we arrive at the number of possible golf tourists we must factor in another element: Maltese golfers. At first sight these do not seem to be many; Mr Bonello declared that there are 500 in all. However, if these enthusiasts play at least one game a week (I am informed that a good number of them tee-off three to four times a week) they would require a total of 25,000 rounds annually. Further, it would be reasonable to assume that with three “lovely” golf courses, more Maltese would take up the sport. Let us assume, conservatively, that another 200 people start to play once a week. Therefore another 10,000 rounds would need to be set aside from total capacity, unless golf is declared open only to foreigners and existing players! Now if we tot up the rounds of golf played by Maltese players, 35,000 per annum, and take a proportionate nine months of these, a total of 26,000 rounds of golf are needed for Maltese players during the shoulder months. These would have to be deducted from the total of 67,500. That leaves the three golf courses with, give-or-take, 40,000 rounds of golf to sell overseas. All this assuming that the weather consistently plays to golf!

Now golfers do not come to Malta to play one game. I am informed that a golf tourist will travel for four or five days and play at least four games. Assuming that each golfer books four games, that will create enough capacity for 10,000 tourist (ie 40,000 rounds divided by four games). Now excuse me – there is a sizeable difference between 30,000 and 10,000, at least in my ledger. When this argument is presented, the golf lobby (currently composed of the Prime Minister, the Environment Minister, the Tourism Minister and their respective communications coordinators, as well as the newly recruited leader of the opposition) states that golfers travel with their wives – sure. If they add a child, they might actually arrive at the magical number of 30,000! Now I don’t mean to be mean, so let us assume that 25 per cent of them come along with a partner. That would equate to the arrival of a whopping 12,500 “new” tourists to Malta. Yes, a mind-blowing increase of one per cent in tourist arrivals. But hold on a sec, they will say! Golfers are super five-star tourists (who said golf was not a rich man’s game?) who will spend many multiples of the average spending of our “bucket-and-spade” tourists. OK – let’s give them that as well. Let us assume that on a short four-day stay, each tourist spends Lm100 per day, ie Lm 400. Multiply that by 12,500 and a total of Lm6,000,000 is to be spent. For those of you who do not know, unfortunately not all that figure gets added to our GDP. First we need to deduct the “importation component” within that spending, which I value at between 30 per cent and 35per cent. That leaves a total of Lm4 million to be added to our GDP. The bottom line is that after destroying forever, two (out of two) priceless environmental and ecological sites, we are going to increase our GDP by one fifth of one per cent. Ambitious, ha? All this assuming that golf tourism is a complete success, tour operators maintain their prices, the golf courses themselves do not go belly up and Austin Gatt brushes aside his free-market antics and authorises the supply of water at heavily subsidised rates. Call me a downer and a cynic – but to me the few and feeble economic arguments put forward to justify destroying the little that is left of this country’s countryside can be described in one word: crass!

Now I do not mean to be a spoil sport, and I do not wish to go down in history as one who contributed towards denying this country an increase in GDP of Lm4 million. Therefore, in keeping with the spirit of my party’s name I will present to you just one of the many alternatives to the holy grail of golf; one that will more than make up for the “lost” Lm4 million. Malta can build a niche in “retirement tourism”. We should actively develop our country as a destination not just to come on holiday to, but one to retire to. The Malta Tourism Authority should seriously promote this concept, even at international travel fairs. This country is safe, warm, friendly and accessible. It is an ideal retirement place for middle class Europeans, a market of tens of millions. What we will effectively be aiming for is to have the same economic benefits we enjoyed in the past from the permanent presence of foreign military personnel – this time without the war machine on our soil and in our harbours.

The economic benefits are truly exciting; they make the supposed economic benefits of golf pale into virtual insignificance. Let me explain. Every penny or euro cent spent in Malta by retirees who bring over money from overseas is effectively an addition to consumer spending and filters down into our GDP. Let us assume that a couple will be spending between Lm6,000 and Lm8,000 per annum to retire in Malta. If the MTA is moderately successful, and attracts even just one thousand couples over the next three to four years, then their total annual spending will match the supposed Lm6 million to be reaped from golf. If the MTA works hard and smart on this niche (I would be glad to help them put a business plan together, for free) and targets to “sell” Malta to 4,000 retired couples over the next ten years, they would have added a total of Lm140 million to this country’s economy over the next ten years. Then even Premier Gonzi will stop singing the praises of golf. When it comes to economic potential, the Greens are far more optimistic and ambitious than both government and opposition, who believe that the only way to improve the economy is by sacrificing our country to more development. Good sense is indeed our most abundant resource.

Edward Fenech

Alternattiva Demokratika spokesman for Finance, the Economy and Tourism