Ariel Sharon’s shift from being an arch-conservative to a seeker of peace in the Middle East, gave the Israelis hope that a deal could be finally reached with the Palestinians after many years of bloodshed.

The withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip last summer gave a fresh impetus to the peace process, although the conflict in the Middle East is far from over. This move in itself was however the beginning of Sharon’s difficulties within his own Likud Party, and eventually led to his departure to form a new party – the Kadima – last November.

As the Israeli Prime Minister now battles for life in a Jerusalem hospital after a massive stroke last Wednesday that followed a milder attack last month, the future of Israeli politics and, in the wider context, of the Middle East, is in the

balance.

For one thing, Sharon’s personality is the Kadima’s main strength, and one has to see what will happen now that the Prime Minister will no longer play a leading role. The party is still in its infancy and was still in the process of drawing up a list of candidates for the elections, to be held on 28 March, before Sharon fell grievously ill.

The Israeli government and the party are still functioning with an interim Prime Minister and leader, but without Sharon, Israel and the Middle East are a totally different story. There is no one in his party who enjoys as much Israeli trust as Sharon.

Sharon had been a Likud Party asset since his former party, Shlomtzion, had merged with it way back in 1977. He abandoned it to form the Kadima Party last November over growing dissent following the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza last summer.

The Kadima was considered to be in pole position and strong favourite for victory before Sharon’s illness. But matters have changed now and the Likud Party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Labour Party, run by Amir Peretz, have better chances.

The leadership of the Kadima Party – and that of the government – has passed on temporarily to former Jerusalem mayor Ehud Olmert, who is likely to take complete control of the party, although, even here, there are other candidates for the post. These include Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, who, like Olmert, also left the Likud Party to join Sharon’s new set-up.

Observers suggest that Sharon’s influence could still push Kadima’s electoral chances, but others believe more in the likelihood of a coalition government, which would not be the ideal scenario in the particular circumstances of the Middle East. An Israeli government which has to face an internal struggle would not be helpful to the peace process.

Three months are however an eternity in politics – more so in this area where the balance could be tilted one way on one day, and the other 24 hours later.

Added to all this, the Palestinians will have their own parliamentary ballot on 25 January. This is another important factor in the whole Middle East puzzle, and the outcome will have its own effect on how things develop in the near future.

The peace process in the Middle East has been having its ups-and-downs – more downs, for that matter – for many years. Hundreds of lives have been lost and are still being lost as the Israelis and the Palestinians seek a peaceful arrangement in a bid to end a tumultuous period in this region.

Before the Palestinian vote later this month and the Israeli election on 28 March, nothing much can be expected on the road towards peace. Sharon’s illness – irrespective of how one perceives him to be – has complicated matters further.