Various local and EU surveys have reported that the popularity of this Lawrence Gonzi government is improving, albeit by small leaps and little bounds. And while surveys might be misleading and their interpretation even more so, it is not just the cold numbers on a page which are pointing in this direction. There is also a creeping sensation out there on the streets that somehow or other the next election might not be a walkover win by Alfred Sant’s Labour Party. Vaguely and hazily, the PN is beginning to appear like it is back in the running. Not quite the confident winner of old just yet, but certainly a credible contestant.

Up to six months ago, although Gonzi as prime minister always enjoyed high confidence ratings, the party and the government he was running looked like they were in the deep doldrums. The Cabinet appeared like a motley crew of (mostly) men going through the political motions. Without flair and enthusiasm for anything. The overall image of the government and its ministers was shot through with an odd mixture of pathos and ridiculousness. Many commentators, even those traditionally sympathetic to the PN, argued openly that the toll of years in power was written all over the ministers’ exhausted faces and droll speeches. The clamouring for a Cabinet reshuffle was really a cry for at least a change of these faces. Even the militant sceptics who doubted Alfred Sant’s ability to run the country started to waver.

Now let us look at the political flipside. Six months ago, Alfred Sant came across like an impatient and self-confident prime minister in waiting. Surfing the high wave of public irritation and boredom with government, his job seemed to be limited to saying as little as possible and to flip the pages of the calendar. Today, although it is too early to tell, I am not so sure that Alfred Sant’s steady ride to shore is as steady as it was six months ago. The wave on which he rides appears to be subsiding. The surfboard is beginning to wobble and he has to do something to keep his balance.

So here we are, in the middle of an electoral mid-term, a time when any government’s electoral positioning should be at its worse and getting worse. Given that we are talking about the fourth PN government since 1987 this one should be a leading candidate in the Guinness Book ‘Least likely to be re-elected’ category.

And yet, the survey and street feelers point in the opposite direction. The electoral fortunes of the government led by Lawrence Gonzi seem to be increasing, not decreasing. And they seem to be doing so at the expense of those of his direct opponent.

Now this is just an attempt to make an assessment of what seems to be going on at the moment, a freeze frame of today. It certainly does not suggest that the PN might not nosedive again even in the immediate future. Nor does it mean that Alfred Sant won’t steady his surfboard. A week is a long time in politics and all that.

But what really interests me is not the next six months but the last ones. The question that exercises me is this: why does the PN seem to be doing better now compared to six months ago?

Starting off on some firmer ground, the issue is this. I cannot for the life of me see what has changed, concretely, over the last six months to explain the electoral shift. There were no major changes in the economy, no massive investment that created hundreds of jobs, and no big injection of capital from the EU. There was nothing to increase, even marginally, the feel good factor.

If anything, the last six months were characterised by a number of factory closures and substantial redundancies. More significantly, these were months during which substantial government decisions hit people where it hurts, necessary and reasonable as those decision might have been. Most important of all was the increase in the water and fuel rates as a result of skyrocketing oil prices. It is true that it is only now that people started to receive their first bill with the new rates. Yet I do have the impression the government managed to persuade many if not most that the decision was inevitable and in the national interest.

Could the answer be found by looking at the political flipside again. Did anything of much political consequence happen in the policy or the ranks of the MLP to explain why as a party it is not doing as well as it was doing six months ago? Did Alfred Sant or his party commit political mistakes of such import that they would explain this strange shift in mid-term? I do not think so. For better or worse, Alfred Sant’s MLP has remained what it always has been, Alfred Sant’s MLP.

So how is it that there seems to be more confidence in this Gonzi government than before? Could it be that six months ago there was negative spin that worked but has stopped working now? Or, could it be that there is now positive spin for government that is working? Quite honestly, I don’t know.

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