There have been four separate electoral consultations in these islands since the 2003 General Election.

The general election hubris dissipated with unexpected rapidity within a year. PN voters deserted the party in droves, and the Malta Labour Party won the Euro-parliamentary election with an absolute majority. Ever since, the PN party organisation has been in distress. Its inherent inadequacies and weakness were exposed, and given wide coverage, after the publication of a “secret report” by a commission appointed to analyse the causes of the 2004 calamity.

Signs of stress

That report revealed astounding incompetence and strategic bumbling, in an environment where confidence had been steadily evaporating within the party’s structures and in the constituencies. At a time when the economy was showing signs of stress, Ministers and MPs distinguished themselves by their “indifference, apathy, and lack of dynamism”.

Things have not improved since 2004. Malta has continued to live beyond its means, sinking under greater debt, while the tax burden got heavier and heavier. The massive surcharge on water and electricity bills, announced practically overnight, broke the camel’s back – and this at a time when the tourist sector was in the doldrums and local small enterprise were struggling for survival.

Watershed

The last round of local council elections, held in early March, proved to be a watershed. The PN got a trouncing. Worried businessmen began to air their complaints in the media and in public. The tide has turned.

And the PN General Secretary, speaking at the party’s General Council meeting in Gozo last week, admitted the developing “crisis” in which the Party finds itself. Of course, the latest PN theme is all about recouping lost ground and rejuvenation.

It is one thing to rally the Praetorian Guard, charming the disenchanted and sorely tried electorate is another. There is mounting evidence that the electoral perception about the ebbing tide is fast gaining ground.

If that perception hardens, nothing will stop it.

This is particularly so because the Gonzi Government finds itself between the devil and the deep blue sea, with little or no leeway to offer relief. It is under duress from the EU, and has to introduce more austerity measures to conform to the Maastricht criteria. Its standing in Brussels depends on keeping to its commitments, namely reducing the debt ratio to a significant extent, and restraining public expenditure further to reduce the budget deficit.

Element of uncertainty

Shrewd businessmen are beginning to wonder whether the government will stay the course as we approach the run-in to the next general election, or whether it will cave in prematurely and call it a day.

This introduces an element of uncertainty as to the length of the transition period between now and the general election. If that uncertainty hardens and gains ground, the electoral terrain will turn into a veritable quicksand.

Some members of the core group of government supporters, whose political, economic and institutional interests have been best served under the status quo, may be having second thoughts. This core group will therefore begin to fragment, as the shadows of doubt grow taller. Some core supporters may decide that the perpetuation of the ancient regime is no longer in their interest. Some will make furtive preparations to abandon the sinking ship.

Once this shift begins to gain public visibility, there will be a snowball effect with the open support of middle-class intellectuals, journalists and even some clergymen.

All of this has happened before – in Malta and elsewhere. But in an age where computers, mobile phones and fax machines have taken over, telecommunications and media power unleashed by ubiquitous, independent-minded citizens are likely to make a bigger and faster impact on the electorate than the traditional party machines.

Gut feeling

I do not claim prophetic qualities. The above therefore, should not be considered to have been cast in stone. But it is worth hanging on to, for reference purposes.

I begin to entertain a notion that I will have occasion to recall what I have just written and to say at some point “I told you so”.

My gut feeling, for what it is worth, is that we are moving towards a scenario where economic conditions will get harsher, where leaders will matter more than institutions, future survival more than present status. It is at such times – when existing norms are challenged by adversity – that leaders offer themselves as sources of promise, if not of certainty.

It is possible that in a turbulent, traumatic environment, the dissolution of existing arrangements can generate a corresponding potential for survival by way of new solutions that would summon patriotism and a spirit of service. – a new political language delineating a new way of life, and the emergence of a social base from which members and leaders are drawn to undertake a historical task demanding risk and sacrifice.

The average Maltese elector hankers for a way of life that seeks to safeguard his livelihood, one that raises man above the level of the brutes and the realm of iron necessity, and one, which does not ignore or marginalise the human need for security. In like manner, we need a government that professes a preference for the family over the individual as the basic unit of society.

The electorate is weary of sound bites and of promises that never materialise. It is smarting from the arrogance of power, the blatant clientelism and the stifling odour of corruption. It knows there is little time left for a fresh start.

That’s why change is in the air. Will the Maltese electorate take the tide at the flood and seize the moment?

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