In the political tug of war over hedging, it is high time for some cool reflections.

The insatiable thirst for oil of emerging and established economies is a fact.

With bated breath one can observe unpredictable trends in the political moves and leanings of governments that strut on the black gold. Keeping abreast of geo-political events in the oil-producing areas, as they shift along with intrigues and undercurrents from various interested quarters, one can detect ominous hidden messages, delivered in a staccato pattern, to thirsty oil consumers. Oil analysts complicate the outlook by gazing into their crystal balls, but therein lies the worth of their forecasts, which often go away.

The bottom line is loud and clear: there is not a chance in hell that oil prices will fall, let alone take a nose-dive, within the remotely foreseeable future.

In this contest, only Russia can upset the applecart in the West’s favour, but then only if the West keeps mum on Chechnya, human rights and sinister corruption deals in that region.

If anyone has dismissed the films Three days of the condor and lately Syriana, as hyped Hollywood fare, then they have missed the subtle message that each conveys.

Conclusion: it pays to lean against your hedge.

Jos. Xuereb

MOSTA