The year 2008 will be crucial for Malta.

On 1 January, it is envisaged that Malta will change its currency from the Maltese lira to the euro, “completing” our Europeanness, which started when the island joined the European Union in May 2004.

Although this set date is still to be confirmed, Malta seems to be well-geared towards reaching the aim it has set itself.

But 2008 could also be the year of the general election, and here the link to the switch to the euro is also evident.

Because the planned move from the lira to the euro could be closely associated with the date for the next general polls, and it could well be that the election would be held before 2008 precisely because of the introduction of the euro.

There are many trains of thought on the matter.

There are those who believe that the election can be called before the end of 2007, some time between late October and early December, because they think it would be the best time for the Nationalist Party to retain power.

The effects of the euro introduction on inflation are being played down, but in the end many still think that prices will go up, at least marginally, once the shift to the euro is made. With an opposition that continues to insist that the cost of living is going up and bases its campaigns mostly on such an effect on the people’s lifestyles, the government therefore cannot risk to play into the opposition’s hands.

The government still has the budget for 2007 to present and, if it delays the election to the latter part of that year it could still come up with a “good” budget for 2008 just before the election. This is, at least, what the pre-2008 election pushers are thinking.

Then there are those who say that the effects of the “good” budget for 2008 would not have been felt if the election is held in late 2007, and therefore are more for an election in early 2008 – February or March.

In this way, they argue, any possible bad effects on inflation following the introduction of the euro will be balanced by the last budget before an election, which is traditionally the best budget of the five-year legislature. And, if what the government is saying about the non-effects on inflation turn out to be correct, then the “good” budget will be an added bonus.

The third line of thinking is that of those who believe the government will take as long as possible to call an election. Considering that the last election was held in April 2003, the last available date for the next election is September 2008. Since an election campaign in the hot summer months is not likely – the one that took place in 1998 was a one-off largely due to the prevailing situation at the time – it is more probable that if the government follows this line, it would call an election in May or early June of 2008.

In this way, the effects of the “good” budget for 2008 would have seeped down even deeper and the government would have more time to fulfil its promises.

This is, of course, pure speculation. A day is a long time in politics, let alone two years, and the political scenario could change drastically at any time. The accuracy or otherwise of these considerations depends on other factors, mostly also on the fact that Malta will be benefiting from European Union funds valid for the period 2007-2013. The government would be banking on immediate positive effects of such funds on the country’s well-being.

All in all, it is Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi who must decide. And, frankly speaking, it is probable that not even he himself knows, at this point in time, when the next election will be held.