BAGHDAD – In spite of much good news about security progress in Iraq this summer, Iraq faces an urgent crisis in securing Baghdad. Iraqi leaders and their coalition partners have a sound strategy to turn the situation around, but it is vital that Iraqis control sectarian violence and come together against the terrorists and outside powers that are fomenting the violence. To do this, the Iraqi government and people need the support and help of their democratic friends in Europe, the United States, and around the world.

In July, there were 558 violent incidents in Baghdad, a 10 per cent increase over the monthly average. These attacks caused 2,100 deaths, again an increase over the four-month average. By late August, those numbers declined considerably, although final figures are not yet in. Still, it is alarming that 77 per cent of these casualties were the result of sectarian violence, giving rise to fears of an impending civil war in Iraq.

This is not what the people of Iraq want. In July, a poll by the International Republican Institute, a non-partisan organisation dedicated to democracy promotion, found that 94 per cent of Iraqis said they support a “unity” government representing all sects and ethnic communities, with only two per cent opposed. Some 78 per cent of Iraqis opposed Iraq being segregated by religion or ethnicity, with only 13 per cent in favour. Even in Baghdad, where the worst of Iraq’s sectarian violence has occurred, 76 per cent oppose ethnic separation, with only 10 per cent favouring it. Clearly, the extremists and insurgents do not have the support of the people. The challenge of the Baghdad Security Plan and its accompanying effort at national reconciliation is to realise the desire of the overwhelming majority of Iraqis to live in peace with one another against the violent minority who seek to impose their vision of hatred and oppression.

The international community cannot achieve its goal of a secure, stable and democratic Iraq at peace with itself and its neighbours if such devastating violence persists in the capital. Baghdad is home to one out of five Iraqis. It is a microcosm of Iraq’s diverse ethnic and sectarian communities. Insurgents want to create a perception of growing chaos in an effort to persuade Americans and the international community that the effort in Iraq has failed. Therefore, violence in Baghdad has a disproportionate psychological and strategic effect.

Since February’s attack on the Samara Mosque, both Sunni and Shiite extremists have tried to expand their control and influence throughout the capital. With the death of Musab al-Zarqawi, the leadership of al Qaeda in Iraq was significantly weakened, but it still has cells operating in Baghdad, deploying car bombs to Shiite neighbourhoods. At the same time, Sunni and Shiite death squads, some acting as Iranian surrogates, are increasing the violence. Shortcomings in the training and leadership of Iraq’s National Police compound the cycle of retaliatory violence. To combat this complex problem, Iraq’s national unity government, led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, made securing Baghdad its top priority. His democratically-elected government needs the international community’s support as outlined in UN Security Council Resolutions 1546 and 1637.

The government’s Baghdad Security Plan has three principal components:

Stabilising Baghdad

zone by zone

More than 12,000 additional Iraqi and Coalition forces are being deployed on the city’s streets. The National Police are undergoing intensive retraining, including additional training focused on countering violent sectarianism. To date, this approach has been implemented in five of Baghdad’s nine areas. Other districts will be added in the coming weeks.

Increased checkpoints and patrols, along with cross-sectarian neighbourhood committees, are advancing security neighbourhood by neighbourhood. As each district of Baghdad is secured, operations expand into neighbouring zones.

Disrupting support zones

As specific neighbourhoods are secured, Iraqi and coalition forces will continue to conduct targeted operations in other zones that are staging areas for the violence. This degrades the ability of the terrorists and death squads to mount offensive operations into the areas the forces are stabilising.

Undertaking civic action and economic development

One of the most tragic elements of the increasing violence in Baghdad is that it robs the Iraqi people of a sense of normalcy. Just after Iraq’s liberation, Iraqi entrepreneurs thrived as shops overflowed with consumer goods prohibited under the previous regime. Sadly, increasing violence in Baghdad forced many Iraqis to close their shops for fear of their safety.

Consequently, after joint coalition and Iraqi military operations secure a neighbourhood or district, sufficient Iraqi security forces are left in place and reinforced with the capacity to undertake civic action and foster economic revitalisation. Prime Minister Maliki’s government committed $500 million to this effort, while the US government is providing over $130 million.

This economic support programme offers vocational training and jobs, especially for 17- to 25-year-old males. It fosters public support through improved services, such as medical care and trash and debris removal, and builds local governmental capacity to protect and provide for the citizens. Prime Minister Maliki’s plan for securing Baghdad is closely tied to the national unity government’s larger programme for reconciliation, which seeks to foster political understanding between Sunni and Shiite forces, including those involved in sectarian conflict.

Finally, a moral compact between the religious leaders of the two Islamic communities will de-legitimise the violence by banning sectarian killings. This compact denies the killers political or religious sanctuary while Iraqi and coalition forces deny them physical shelter. For the longer term, the plan seeks to induce insurgents and militias to lay down their arms by implementing a programme to demobilise unauthorised armed groups. It will also review the implementation of the de-Baathification process, referring those accused of crimes to the judiciary and reconciling with the rest.

It is understandable that when Americans and Europeans hear of casualties and witness images of bloodshed from the streets of Baghdad, they conclude that these plans have failed. This is not true. Iraq’s national unity government has been in office less than three months. Its ministers of defence and interior have been on the job for barely a hundred days. Iraqi ministers are still hiring key staff, and they are learning to work together, under the leadership of a new prime minister. The Committee for National Dialogue and Reconciliation, charged with overseeing implementation of the reconciliation plan, was formed in early August. Nonetheless, positive results are already visible and the violence is declining. This is good news, but we must be patient.

The Iraqi Ministry of Defence reports that the crime rate in the Doura district has been cut by 80 per cent. In the Rashid district, Sunni and Shiite political leaders, tribal leaders and imams met and signed an agreement forswearing violence. Tribal leaders even renounced protection for tribal members who engage in sectarian violence.

Although it is too early to determine whether these success stories will be replicated throughout the city, this initial progress should give Iraqis, Americans and Europeans hope for the future. Contrary to those who portray Iraq as hopelessly mired in ancient ethnic and sectarian feuds, Iraqis want to put the divisions of the past behind them. The Battle of Baghdad will determine the future of Iraq, which will in turn determine the future of the world’s most vital region. Although much difficult work still remains to be done, it is imperative that we Americans and our European friends give the Iraqis the time and material support they need to win the Battle of Baghdad.

Mr Khalilzad is the US ambassador to Iraq.