It always happens that, once the halfway mark of a legislature is over, speculation on the date when the next general election is to be held grows. And the more the deadline approaches, the more the speculation increases.

The last election to be held on the last possible date was that of May 1987. They were different times for Malta, as the political controversy that erupted following the perverse electoral result of the December 1981 election had brought the country to its knees in those eventful years.

Since then, the national election has always been called months before its time. The elections that followed the one held in 1987 were those of February 1992 (four years and nine months of government); October 1996 (four years and eight months); in September 1998 (one year and 10 months) and in April 2003 (four years and seven months).

The reasons that led to the calling of an early election were different as the circumstances changed. The last election, for example, was called a few days after the outcome of the European Union membership referendum when the Malta Labour Party refused to accept the “yes” verdict given by the people. The 1998 election was called after just 22 months with Labour in office following a summer of internal strife that did not allow the then Prime Minister Alfred Sant to keep on governing.

What is however a common experience in the months leading up to an election is that there always seems to be a negative impact on the country as a whole, particularly in economic terms. As a general rule, not knowing what the future holds keeps people back from spending and investing, and this affects the overall picture.

The earlier the speculation with regard to a possible election date starts, the earlier will this slowdown begin, and the greater the chance that the situation will appear gloomy, much to the benefit of the party in opposition.

The more the election approaches, the more this slowdown gains momentum, and in normal circumstances governments call an election earlier than scheduled to avoid a stagnation that could be highly detrimental.

And this is the reason why, on most occasions, it is the opposition and its allies that start mentioning, on a regular basis, the possibility of an “early” election. In this way, the country starts “slowing down” several months, in this case more than a year, before it is likely that an election will be called.

This time, the party in government also helped to set the ball rolling, by issuing a first list of candidates that have been approved to represent the PN in the forthcoming election. It is perhaps a mistake because it added fuel to a fire that had already started to rage; a party in government should do everything possible to block speculation.

Trying to guess when the next election will be held is, these days, a kind of national sport. Many say that it will be held before the end of next year so as to avoid any negative effect to the cost of living through the programmed introduction of the euro to replace the Maltese lira; others believe that the election will be held in the first quarter of 2008 and possibly coincide with the local council election; and then there are those who believe the government will stretch the date to May or June of that year.

Of course, this is all speculation and it is not our intention to foment it. The point that is being made here is that it is common practice that the possibility of an early election comes up more regularly in the media – in particular in the media which is friendly with the opposition – for the reasons given earlier. And yet the PN shot itself in the foot by giving every reason to the Labour-leaning media to continue speculating on the matter.

On the whole, however, it is up to the Prime Minister to decide. As we all know, a day is a long time in politics, let alone weeks and months, and it is therefore impossible at this stage to pick the election date. The country should put the election issue aside and keep on working hard because, in a competitive world, not even one day can be lost.