With the budget debate out of the way, the political parties are busily deploying their forces in anticipation of a long drawn out campaign leading up to the next general election.
The stakes are high – and this explains why the respective party strategists are taking up positions and building up their forces at this early stage.
The Nationalist Party has held office for the best part of the last two decades, and has been showing signs of fatigue.
On taking over the leadership of the party three years ago, Dr Lawrence Gonzi did not rejuvenate it with new blood. The duress of EU membership obliged him to launch a convergence programme that ushered in more austerity – expressed in steep tax burdens and increased national debt.
This militated against growth, and resulted in a setback across the board, in terms of reduced spending power, loss of jobs and competitiveness. It all fell far short of the promise of an “early spring”.
Disenchantment
The ensuing disenchantment was highlighted in all electoral consultations held since the last general election.
The Nationalist Party has a mountain to climb. Like Mount Everest, it is there. And it has to do, in more ways than one, with Dr Gonzi’s performance during the past three years.
In this unfolding scenario, the Labour Party had the wind blowing in its sails, and it has lost no opportunity to exploit the shortcomings of the PN and the shaky performance of its ministerial team.
It has been feverishly drawing up plans, in consultation with a wide range of NGOs, to be incorporated in its election manifesto. But it has not been plain sailing all the way.
Fractious elements
The party has had to cope with fractious elements, some of whom went their separate ways, when they could not prevail within the party structures.
Some of these had strong principles; others had chips on their shoulders or personal ambitions. This makes no difference to the fact that estranged dissidents, who tenaciously persisted in criticising the party, have been offering hostages to the PN’s fortunes all the while.
Nationalist spokesmen and their media have highlighted with glee each and every foray by the dissidents.
In Malta’s polarised political environment, where a general election assumes the nature of a presidential race, this factor will be personalised. It will continue to revolve around the personality of Alfred Sant and his leadership.
Staying power
In a sense, this is old hat. Alfred Sant has been the PN’s main target ever since he assumed the leadership of the Malta Labour Party. He has since shown that he has far more staying power than his rivals mistakenly assumed, and that he enjoys the confidence of his party.
Nevertheless, PN strategy is to pounce on the outpourings of the disenchanted, to attack Dr Sant’s credibility and his leadership.
The strategists are assuming that the floating vote and disgruntled Labourites will be reluctant to vote for the Labour Party when it is led by Dr Sant.
Objectively, this amounts to a concession that the Nationalist Party lacks the conviction that it can ride the electoral wave on the strength of its own perform-ance.
The PN would, in this case, be relying on negative voting, rather than on winning votes on their own merits.
Insidious hurdle
On the other hand, the intense winds of political polarisation, and last minute manoeuvres around personalities, of the kind encountered at the last general election, could still produce unexpected twists of elector fortunes.
For all the favourable winds blowing in its sails, the Malta Labour Party has an insidious hurdle to overcome by election time.
The party will have itself to blame if it does not stand four square, and single-mindedly, behind its leader. It can best do this by refusing to be drawn into controversies with individual dissidents, and by concentrating on saving its breath for the last hurdle.
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