The next round of local council elections is still three months away, but all political parties are already preparing for what should be the last test before the national election.

We speak of a last test because, according to many observers, the national election will most likely be held some time late next year or, at the latest, it will be scheduled for the first part of 2008, which would mean that the local elections for that year will, in all probability, coincide with the national poll.

Once the Christmas and New Year festivities are over, the political parties will embark on a long campaign leading to the local elections in March.

It must be repeated that local council elections are in no way similar to the national poll. For one thing, the number of people who turn out to vote to elect the mayor and councillors is normally much lower than the turn-out in national elections.

But, at the same time, local elections do give indications, and if one were to go by what happened in the last three such elections, the Labour Party should be happy with the outcome while the Nationalist Party should think hard about what led to three successive electoral defeats.

The number of defeats for the PN increases to four if one were to consider the election for Malta’s five representatives in the European Parliament, which Labour also won handsomely.

As such, the PN cannot afford to lose yet another election, even at local level, as it gears up for the national poll. It would confirm what has taken place since the last national election victory, which quickly followed up the EU referendum win – that the people are not happy with the administration.

Still, it must be said that the three years immediately succeeding the 2003 election were difficult times for Malta, especially from the economic point of view. There was a need for measures to be taken to control the public deficit, and the country’s economic growth was lower than what it should have been.

There are now signs that we have turned the corner, and the budget as presented by Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi last October was an indication that matters are improving. Whether this is enough for the PN to recover from the electoral setbacks remains to be seen but, again, what the PN is aiming for is not a win at local level – which would however be a morale-booster – but a victory at the national poll.

Since taking over from his predecessor Eddie Fenech Adami, Dr Gonzi is still to lead his party to an electoral victory. All his detractors point this out to him whenever they can, but Dr Gonzi (and his party) believe in what he is doing and, who knows, even if the PN were to lose in March, Dr Gonzi could still have the last laugh when he calls a national election.

The Labour Party has given great importance to its local wins, insisting that they were clear signs that the people are fed up of the Nationalist government – which has been in office for nearly two decades with the exception of 22 months. The MLP is trying to build on these victories – and another one in March will no doubt be another feather in the party hat – but it is evident that all this would have been in vain if Dr Alfred Sant fails to lead his party to a national victory.

The MLP has for the past months issued document after document explaining what its policy will be if it is returned to power. It is showing the people that it is preparing itself and that it is already in “election mode”.

The March election is also important for Alternattiva Demokratika, the country’s third political force. AD has already made some headway at local level, but of course its main target is to elect at least one representative in Parliament. Failure to do so will deal a big blow to the Greens and might even throw their future in doubt.

Three months remain, but the parties know that next March’s local elections will provide an important exam for them as they prepare for the big one.