The title of this article might sound misleading. In the sense that it could be construed as hinting at a doom laden scenario.

While the risks with which 2007 has started are still as high as they were last year, there have been certain developments whose inherent fluidity and flexibility have given rise to new hopes and possibly even new opportunities.

The bad news first.

What is happening in Palestine could easily lead us to a new tinderbox. New elections rather than bringing peace could lead to a scenario whereby Hamas could either boycott the elections, win the elections or else ignore the legislative elections and limit themselves to giving Abbas a good run for his money for the Presidency of the Palestinian Authority.

While I hold no brief for Hamas I am still not convinced that Fatah has brought its own house in order. At least until now. In spite of the security assistance it has been receiving from the US.

As The Economist commented recently “more killing and chaos will not bring peace with Israel nearer. Nor are fresh elections a panacea….Far better than a premature election would be for Hamas and Fatah to agree to share power in a government that did not dedicate itself to perpetual jihad….”

If the situation was worrying for some when Hamas won the elections democratically last year, it is even more worrying now that Palestine itself seems to be on the brink of civil war.

Regarding Lebanon it has badly lost its balance and is at risk of new collapse, moving ever closer to explosive Sunni-Shiite polarisation with a divided Christian community in between.

What worries me most is that apart from the fact that Lebanon has always been a surrogate for regional and international conflicts, the principal contributors to today’s conflict remain foreign.

On the positive side there seems to have been some movement on the Israeli-Syrian front.

Last week a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official backed the view of Military Intelligence that Syria is serious about renewing peace negotiations with Israel.

The director of the Israeli Foreign Ministry Centre for Policy Research not only claimed that Syria is ready for negotiations but also that there are sources in the Arab states who believe that Syria will ally itself to the Western bloc headed by the United States and Britain.

On his part PM Olmert has so far shown himself to be inflexible on the issue at the moment.

While the Israeli Foreign Minister tried to draw a sharp defining line between negotiations and the peace process.

But in spite of the double talk which might be triggered by psychological considerations, it seems that the Syrian regime believes that dialogue with Israel will only better its position and improve its standing.

For all those who dread the Syrian-Iranian alliance particularly vis-a-vis Lebanon, this is a sterling opportunity to disengage the two from one another – with Syria allegedly inching closer to Israel and Iran still holding steadfast in its refusal to recognise Israel as a sovereign state!

Although the US administration seems to be unimpressed by the time I got down to writing this article, senators such as Arlen Specter have held direct talks with Bashar Assad, flying home with the strong conviction that the Syrian president wants to resume peace negotiations with Israel.

Although the US senator did not say what conditions Assad gave for restarting talks with the Israelis, Specter claims to have even discussed with Assad how Syria could use its influence with Hamas to urge the Palestinian militant group to give up its refusal to recognise Israel.

The Israeli FM stated that Israel would demand a “package deal” that would include disconnecting Syria from “the axis of evil” and its support for negative elements like Hamas and Hizbullah.

At the core of it all, Israeli thinking runs as follows – as outlined by its engaging foreign minister: “The question of what we get in return is integral – not what territory we would give.”

If there has been confusion between Israeli diplomatic and intelligence officials on how to handle Syrian peace overtures – which could all be part of a double talk exercise – even the Israel media has adopted an ambivalent approach.

Their most intriguing conclusion, being that if expert analysts in Israel are unable to know fully Assad’s thinking, Assad himself is “unable to interpret the bent of Olmert’s soul.”

After all the Israeli PM one day stated that he intends to pull out from most of the West Bank only to declare a month later that this plan has been shelved.

At this point in time it might be still difficult to ferret out this cat-and-mouse game but at least it remains a far more interesting and encouraging ball game than aggro-talk and/or war gaming.

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