The year that has just started is an important one for the country.

The one that has just ended consolidated the signs of recovery that were already noticeable in the last part of 2005. After a period of economic difficulty that became evident soon after the 2003 election, the country slowly started to recuperate the lost ground and 2006 can be described as one in which we really turned the corner.

Difficulties still remain, and the beleaguered tourism industry is the perfect example that not all problems have been resolved. But, overall, there was a general improvement in economic terms and the people have started to feel the benefits of government measures that were intended to take the country back on track.

Malta is now two and a half years into its European Union membership, and 2007 will be the start of a seven-year “project”. The e855 million that will be pumped in by the EU over the next seven years will continue to help the country transform itself.

The year that has just started could also turn out to be the year of the election. The government could stay on to complete the legislature until summer 2008, but if Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi walks in his predecessor’s footsteps, it is highly unlikely that we will go that far before we go to the polls.

Former Nationalist Party leader and Prime Minister Eddie Fenech Adami always called early elections when in office, in 1992, 1996 and 2003, believing that a protracted electoral campaign would have been detrimental to the country’s well-being. With Malta being a highly-politicised country, it is better to hold an early election to get it out of the way, rather than allow long months of waiting to slow progress and have negative effects on one and all.

When the last election was held, Dr Gonzi was Dr Fenech Adami’s right hand man as his deputy. Now, as Prime Minister, it is probable that he will also not wait until the end of the five years plus allowed by the Constitution to call an election.

Whether it will be this year or in the first half of the next remains to be seen, and the decision to be taken depends on many factors.

Will Dr Gonzi call an election this year before the lira is replaced by the euro, and avoid – for his party – negative effects because of possible and/or perceived inflation? Or will he wait until the first full year of the new EU budget (2007-2013) is over to allow the benefits of the EU’s financial aid to seep in as much as possible?

With an opposition that is already in election mode – and it has been so for quite some time now – is it wise to delay the setting of the election date when, it is known, Malta literally “stops” each time an election is approaching? Can Malta afford to have an election campaign that lasts months, rather than weeks, running the risk that the long campaign causes economic damage to the country at a time when we need to continue building on the progress achieved since late 2005?

Observers say that the budget presented by the government last October was good, but it was not an election budget. These same observers therefore expect another budget before an election is called. It could therefore well be that the budget for 2008 will be presented even earlier than it has been these past two years and will be used as the launching pad for the election campaign (November?), allowing the country to settle down before the next Christmas.

It’s all in Dr Gonzi’s hands. And, although he is keeping all his cards close to his chest, he must already have his plans drawn up.