The next election will possibly make or break Alternattiva Demokratika.

The party will be contesting its fifth general election, and at AD they like to think that it is the party’s best chance to finally elect a representative to Parliament, breaking the balance of a duopoly that has characterised Maltese politics for four decades.

Since its first participation in 1992, Alternattiva has successively lost votes – in terms of the percentage of votes cast – but the way the country’s politics have evolved in these past few years has given the Green Party led by Dr Harry Vassallo the possibility of making up some ground.

From obtaining one per cent of the total number of votes to winning a seat in Parliament there is a big step.

But Alternattiva have enough confidence in themselves and in their policies – and also in what they see as the people’s weariness of a two-party state – that they see an opportunity for themselves to make history.

The results Alternattiva obtained in the election to elect Malta’s representatives in the European Parliament have given them the necessary push to work even harder. Their candidate, Prof. Arnold Cassola, was the last candidate to be eliminated from the race two and a half years ago.

They have also done reasonably well in local council elections over the years, managing to elect a few representatives here and there to make their voice heard even more.

But, of course, there is a big difference between polls to elect Malta’s MEPs and local councillors, and a general election. The stakes are much higher here and people who might be inclined to vote for a party that is not “traditionally” theirs in EP or local council elections, do find it harder to make the same move in a national poll to elect a government.

Alternattiva know this well. But they also know that the number of so-called floating voters has increased over the years. In the past, it took only a few thousand people switching their vote from one party to another to effectively decide the overall outcome. And both Nationalist and Labour analysts admit that the number of undecided voters has increased, and this puts Alternattiva in a stronger position.

This is because while most of these floating voters might not be willing to change over from blue to red or vice-versa, there is a greater chance that they will either not cast their vote or give their preference to the Greens.

In a sense, AD can gain votes from either side of the political fence. At a time when the Nationalists have been in government for 18 of the last 20 years, and when many doubt that Labour could offer a valid alternative, AD is in a position to earn many votes.

Dr Vassallo has gone on record saying that he is prepared to resign unless AD gains a parliamentary seat. He has put a high hurdle for himself and for the party to overcome. But there is no doubt that the Greens, with their limited human and financial resources when compared to what both the PN and MLP possess, will be doing their utmost to surmount it.

As they did in the EP elections, the Greens will in all probability be fielding only one candidate in each of the electoral districts, particularly in those where they think they have a better chance of making it.

One such district could be Gozo, where Alternattiva believe they stand a good chance of inserting themselves well in the race for one of the five seats to represent the sister island.

Over the past months, AD has concentrated much of its efforts on Gozo, clearly indicating that the party thinks it could win that one quota that would signify a big breakthrough for them, and change the face of Maltese politics. Whether they will succeed or fail will be known when the die is cast.

AD has never been in a better position to make its presence felt. It is now up to them to prove this perception true.