Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi seems to have made the decision to hold the next general election in a year’s time.

He has given enough hints that this is the timeframe he is thinking about in his comments to people around him.

It seems that one of the major reasons for not going to the country in autumn derives from Malta’s probable entry into the eurozone on 1 January 2008. For Dr Gonzi that would seem like a signal achievement of his government whereas if the election is held before that date, it could be portrayed as being held by a government afraid of its inflationary consequences.

It can also be noticed that over the past days, including yesterday (see page 2) Dr Gonzi is once more referring to the economic achievements of his government, which brought the fiscal deficit under control. In the coming months this will be reinforced by the European Commission’s and the European Central Bank’s statements on Malta’s economic performance.

Sources close to the Malta Labour Party have told this newspaper they too are working on the hypothesis that the election will be held in spring. However, they are ready to face the government in an autumn election should Dr Gonzi change his mind or try to spring a sudden election on the country.

It is also noticeable that in the past weeks, the Labour Party has subtly shifted its stance on the introduction of the euro. Up to some months ago, Labour had steadfastly opposed Malta joining the euro at the first opportunity and argued that it should wait until its economic performance improved. Then it suddenly shifted its stance and declared it has accepted that Malta will join next January.

Until then, however, no one could foresee when the election would be held, so Labour was rather open-ended about the introduction of the euro, possibly fearing that it would be in government then and would have to implement any rash promise it made in this regard. But following what was perceived as a hardening of Dr Gonzi’s decision to go to the country next spring, Labour has increased its concern that the introduction of the euro could be accompanied, as it has elsewhere, by a massive dose of inflation.

By pencilling in an election next spring, Dr Gonzi is making his chances of a victory increasingly depend on his ability to check any inflationary spiral between now and Spring 2008.