In December 2004 a tsunami struck Southeast Asia, leaving up to 230,000 dead in its wake. A similar scenario could happen on Europe’s coasts, with the southeast of the Mediterranean being particularly vulnerable.
Almost a century ago, on 28 December 1908, one of Europe’s most powerful earthquakes shook southern Italy forming a devastating tsunami in the Messina Strait – which separates Sicily from Calabria – causing 40-foot waves to crash down on dozens of coastal cities.
The huge waves hitting both Sicilian and Calabrian coasts caused severe destruction and hundreds of victims. Most of southern Italy’s cities lost as many as half their residents that morning. Messina’s population alone – 150,000 – was reduced to only hundreds. The total death toll throughout Italy was estimated at nearly 200,000. Tsunami waves propagated in a very broad area and the water perturbation was recorded from Civitavecchia in Central Italy to Malta.
Years before, tens of thousands of Portuguese who survived the great 1755 Lisbon earthquake were killed by a tsunami. Many people fled from the towns to the waterfront, believing the area safe from fires, from falling debris and from aftershocks.
Since the Mediterranean region has already been a victim of tsunamis in the past, and there is every reason to believe that others will occur in the future, European scientists are studying the question and hope to develop a warning system for coastal populations.
The TRANSFER and SAFER projects, supported by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme for Research & Development, aim to contribute to the understanding of tsunami processes in the Mediterranean and to develop an early warning system similar to the one in use in the Pacific.
TRANSFER – Tsunami Risk and Strategies for the European Region, simulates tsunamis and develops programmes to analyse the risks to vulnerable coastal areas. The simulations give insight into the strength of waves and consequently allow predictions as to which coastal buildings and infrastructures might be able to stand up to them. A total of E3.3 million are being invested in this project.
Another E3.6 million are being invested in another programme SAFER – Seismic Early Warning for Europe. This project aims to develop an early warning system to guarantee the protection of civil populations. Indeed, timely warnings enable people to take shelter and might even help prevent a devastating death toll.
Another project under the Sixth Framework Programme is NEAREST – Integrated Observation from Near Shore Sources of Tsunamis, which is trying to identify large potential tsunami sources located near shore in the Gulf of Cadiz while aiming to improve real-time detection of signals. The project, an investment of E2.8 million, is led by the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche within the Istituto Scienze Marine in Bologna, which teamed up with other partners from Spain, Portugal, Germany, France and Morocco to yield accurate results.
Similarly the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research within the Institute of Oceanography in Athens is leading the project called SEAHELLARC – Seismic and Tsunami risk assessment and mitigation, and through which it is conducting seismic and tsunami risk assessment and mitigation scenarios in the western Hellenic arc. In this case, the Greek centre teamed up with partners from Italy, France, Germany and Turkey. Another E1.3 million have been allocated for this project.
Such projects and their results are of direct interest to Malta. These projects’ main goal is to contribute to our understanding of tsunami processes in the Euro-Mediterranean region.
Particular focus is being posed on the need for the implementation of an efficient tsunami early warning system in the Euro-Mediterranean area, which is a high-priority task since no tsunami early warning system is today in place in the affected countries.
Mr Vella is consultation coordinator at Forum Malta fl-Ewropa.
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