It is a tough time for the Nationalist Party.

Last Saturday’s local council elections confirmed a negative trend for the party in government, as it lost its fifth election in a row – four local council polls and another one to elect Malta’s representatives in the European Parliament.

That this could be – and probably is – the last electoral test before the national election is a well-known fact. Local council elections cannot be compared to a national poll, but it must also be admitted that the current trend favouring the Malta Labour Party must be a cause of worry for the PN.

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi insists that the results of local council elections are not a reflection of the people’s line of thinking in national terms. The PN’s inability to mobilise its supporters as much as the MLP does for the local polls is one of the reasons that the PN brings forward to explain its defeats.

On the other hand, the MLP believes that what is being expressed at local level is similar to what the people think of the government. Labour leader Alfred Sant says that the outcome of the local council elections over the past years is a clear indication that the people want a change at national level too.

What is certain is that the PN cannot ignore the results, no matter how hard they try to play down the successive defeats. It is true that Labour had also won the local council elections before the 2003 national election, which they went on to lose, but the last national poll was particular because it had European Union membership at stake.

At this point in time, there is no major national issue that the PN can cling to in order to gain votes the way it did four years ago. If there was one – the replacement of the Maltese lira with the euro – it was quickly brushed aside when Dr Sant said that the MLP would continue on the same road if it is returned to government.

Things are different today from what they were before the issue regarding European Union membership was resolved. And the PN must take this into account as it prepares to face the electorate again.

The fact that Dr Gonzi is still to lead the PN to a first electoral victory since taking over the reins of the party and the government in 2004 is also a matter of concern. Dr Gonzi believes that in spite of the defeats at local council level he will still be leading his party to victory when it matters most. Yet, it must also be said that the party’s confidence has been severely dented, especially considering that the gap between the two parties is substantial every time, if one were to take the local council elections as a basis for such comparisons.

It is true that there are more Nationalists than Labourites who opt not to vote for their local council. It is true that the party in government faces protest votes at local level. It is also true that the outcome of national elections do not necessarily follow the trend of local council elections.

But the PN must realise that a message has been sent. And it is a strong message, considering that the last three rounds of local council elections – which means that all of Malta and Gozo have had the chance to vote – went in Labour’s favour in bigger proportions than we are accustomed to.

The fact that the PN has lost Nationalist strongholds every time and that now nearly one third of the local councils have a Labour majority ought to send warning signals for Dr Gonzi and his team.

It is time for them to start picking up the pieces. Whether they will do so in time to retain the government is a big question.