The summer we are experiencing will be different from the previous ones.

Parliament will soon rise for the summer recess, for the last time in this legislature, as the election looms closer. In a year’s time, Lawrence Gonzi would have been confirmed as Malta’s Prime Minister or else he would have passed on the baton to Alfred Sant.

There is no official countdown yet, and as is normal in Malta, there will be one of five weeks from the day the Prime Minister sets the date and when the election will be held. But it is apparent that the two major political parties are ready for the race.

Normally, politics takes a break in Malta too in the height of summer, when parliamentary sessions are not being held and when most ministers are away on holiday. Normally, the opposition will take its break too, although in the past years the Malta Labour Party continued to hold activities on a regular basis.

But this will not be a normal summer. And even if the number of political activities is limited to a few weekend manifestations by the sea, the political parties’ machinery will be in full swing – receiving feedback, holding surveys, analysing data and giving advice as to what can be corrected before the people cast their vote.

Someone once said that a day is a long time in politics, and therefore a few months have the potential to make a difference in the overall outcome of the election.

The Nationalist Party has won the last two general elections and a referendum on European Union membership, but since 2003 it has been on the receiving end, losing the European Parliament elections and all four local council elections.

After a difficult two years soon after the 2003 election, government policies seem to be functioning well, as could be seen by the recent acceptance by the European Commission of Malta’s application to join the eurozone, now confirmed by European leaders too.

But the introduction of the euro is just one part of the overall picture that the people will be looking at when the time comes to express their preference. There are many other aspects that the people will be considering before making their choice.

The MLP has been in opposition for 18 of the last 20 years, and this often pushes people, especially the so-called floating voters, to try something else. The contradiction however lies in the fact that the MLP will present itself to the people as a potential new government with a leader that has been at the helm of the party for 15 years, has lost more national polls than he has won, and when he was tried and tested was unable to hold on to his government for more than 22 months.

This could be a plus for the Nationalist Party, which will be facing the electorate with a new leader in spite of having been in government for so long. Yet, on the other hand, the PN is not only made up of its leader, but includes a number of ministers who have failed to deliver. This will, of course, work against the PN.

To have a better chance of being given a third consecutive mandate, the Nationalists must portray themselves as being still fresh. This is a tough obstacle indeed.

For their part, the MLP must convince the people that they have learnt from the mistakes they committed in the past. The MLP is finding this to be a tough hurdle too, as they did make a few mistakes on certain key issues of late.

This takes us back to the initial point, that a day is a long time in politics and that so much can change between today and the day of the election.

It is the party that makes the fewer mistakes that will end up winning.