All that the government is saying in praise of its 2008 Budget is very strongly reminiscent of what Socialist governments used to say in the past in defence of their own very Socialist budgets.
This too is the reason why the Opposition has been somewhat mute and its weapons blunted in response to the Budget, not going much beyond its premature ejaculation of the “Too little. Too late” of the posters.
The left wing of the Nationalist Party, spearheaded by Lawrence Gonzi who was always on the left of centre of the party anyway, has won the internal arguments in preparation for the budget hands down.
It was based on electoral considerations and even though a week later it is still too early to see the whole impact on the population, it would seem the Socialist rhetoric underlying most of its assumptions has effectively stolen the Opposition’s clothes. The Opposition had been saying all along that the government would give 50c a week but should give Lm1.50, fully expecting the government of the centre-right to resist that, only to find itself wrong-footed by the Lm1.50 a week the government gave.
Yes, but, you see, that is precisely the rub. By putting on the clothes of the other side, the government may have imperilled the future growth of the economy.
There were issues of simply social justice that should have been tackled years ago, some of which have now, at long last, been tackled. And it is good that this was done.
The end result is that beyond some platitudes and oily talk, the constituted bodies are keeping mum; the trade unions are on a high, the Opposition is in election mode, and the party in government is all out to get the popular acclaim it feels it deserves. But who is minding the shop?
Whoever comes up in the election will have to face facts and, despite the current hype and boasting, the numbers do not tally.
Edward Scicluna has been the only one to state clearly that the government has estimated a highly optimistic intake from income tax next year, basing itself on two basic assumptions: that the rate of economic growth will continue on the same levels as this year; and that the proceeds from income tax will be higher. But the IMF report clearly states that next year’s growth will most likely be less than this year’s.
It does not need rocket science to see that we could be plunged back into the deficit problem once again, only this time we are in eurozone and not outside it and there are mechanisms in place to keep us from straying anywhere near there. And meanwhile why did we struggle so hard to climb up the slope only to slide down again and have to climb up once more?
It is popular to be Socialist. The government has understood this and pulled out all the stops, aided by an Opposition that does not know whether it’s coming or going. The government calculated it has some Lm21 million to spend, and spend is all that Socialist governments are good at. This country tried it in the 1970s and in the 1980s and each time we slipped back into a recession while the other competitor countries kept going from strength to strength.
There could have been ways to ensure that what has been gained by the past years’ struggles are made more and more unassailable.
Now was the time for the government to cut its own spending and focus on delivering more with less. Instead, this government, like its predecessors from both sides of the House, enjoys spending other people’s money with gusto. And now it has found the lodestone of EU funds (even if it is not completely up to mark with this source yet, as we will undoubtedly find out some years from now).
Now was the time to tackle the COLA issue head on. Instead, the government has contributed to reinforcing it and making it even more cast in stone than it has ever been. It is now borrowing against yet unearned profits – something a bank manager always warns against.
That it has continued to undermine those already struggling against international competition does not seem to tax the government unduly. That more companies will find opportunity or excuse to relocate, that more factories may close – such considerations do not seem to have made it to the government’s front lobe. Nor do they seem to have percolated to the trade union leaders for this is what ultimately undermines the unionisation of the labour force. Or the workers themselves.
Socialism is not a bad word. It is simply an economic model that has been proved faulty and which, locally, has contributed to a great extent to the sufferings of the past four decades. To protest against Socialism does not mean to choose a libertarian, free-for-all, free market economy. It’s common sense, rather. And trying to learn from mistakes made in the past.
After all, let’s imagine this Budget gets the government re-elected. What’s the benefit of winning the election when by the same process one has undermined the country’s economy? Or, to put it in a different way, it’s better to go down having tackled the right issues, having pointed out at what needs to be done structurally and strategically so that, someone, later, will realise that what you said made sense after all and that all those who poured scorn over you are the really foolish ones.