Most probably some media houses, overtly apologetic of the Lawrence Gonzi administration, are busily calling voters to gauge their impressions about the last budget and to test the party's latest popularity ratings. They will be asking loaded questions to prop up Dr Gonzi and his men, painstakingly in search of those feel good factors so much loved by nationalist party acolytes. After so many tax laden budgets this one must have come as a welcome relief, so I would not be surprised if, generally speaking, the budget is accepted as positive. But are people grateful after all and how will it affect their voting preferences when it comes to the crunch?

As a politician I have always taken opinion surveys with a pinch of salt. They are simply a spontaneous reaction by constituents prompted by intervening circumstances. Their life span is also very short as they are prone to becoming outdated at supersonic speed by new intervening circumstances. An opinion poll may have been registered a week ago but peoples' sentiments may have already changed by the time you are reading the results. Look at what happened to Gordon Brown. He was on a high for a couple of weeks until David Cameron took the podium at the Conservative party General Conference and now he's trailing badly.

People already decided which way their vote is going months ago and no hosanna from a budget epistle will make them change their minds. Generally speaking people don't like expressing their preferences genuinely to anonymous callers and prefer to keep mum. Now you would say that the elections are really round the corner so that people must be making up their minds. True. But with a fresh budget dominating the airwaves and the political agenda one risks getting some blurred surveys. So far as I am concerned opinion polls can at best be morale boosters and at worst partisan tools meant to manipulate or impress public opinion.

I prefer talking to constituents directly in their homes. It is my type of campaign. No hype, no grand fests, no hyperbole. It is exactly what I have been doing calmly for as long as I have been in politics and, of course, during the last four years, not just on the eve of a general election. I have learnt that while opinions change from day to night, people's general moods and impressions do not. You get a snapshot of the former with opinion surveys and the latter inside people’s homes.

The general mood I have gauged during the last few years has been consistent. People want change. After three long years of broken promises, austerity measures and rampant sleaze the Gonzi administration is now sprinkling some goodies here and there in a bid to recover lost trust and confidence. But people’s moods have not changed. They are no fools. They understand that the sprinkling of goodies, albeit welcome, have absolutely nothing to do with the economy or public finances. On the contrary they firmly believe that the sprinkling of goodies is intrinsically connected to partisan objectives.

At home visits last week I targeted the floaters in my district. I have come across, purposely, professionals, bank employees, small businessmen and undergraduates. I have a good database which I have collated since my involvement with local councils in 1993. I had problems trying to convince these families to vote Labour in 2003. But for the last four years they have spoken very clearly about their willingness to go for a change.

I have obviously challenged them on the budget and was bluntly advised that they were expecting nothing different. I got some cynical comments too – "I wish we have an election every year", (with reference to the budget) "only God knows whether the next budget will be as good as this one", "I got used to niceties before an election and cons immediately after," "it's about time I got back some money but he's (Gonzi) out of time to get my vote".

The arrogance of some ministers must also be working on the nerve of some of my constituents. A leading professional at Rabat, who has been voting nationalist since 1998, didn't even bother to speak of the budget. Instead he vented his anger at the attitude of some ministers – "they take us for morons". His family will be casting their vote for the Labour party next time. Of course so far I can only account for a small percentage of voters in my district. But the trend is consistent. What struck me is that notwithstanding the budget, people don't seem to be changing their minds or even bothering to talk about it.

The nationalists might to be trying to flog a dead horse.

DR GAVIN GULIA LL.D., M.P.

Dr Gulia is the Opposition's Main Spokesman on the Interior.