Speculation was rife over the past days that an election will be called for December. But it is highly unlikely that Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi will choose to go to the polls now.

Although the budget presented earlier this month has given the Nationalist government a much-needed breath of fresh air in terms of popularity, the chances that the election will be held before the New Year are very, very slim.

The reasons for this are varied.

For one thing, an election in December would disrupt the busiest time for business. The Christmas period brings about a flurry of commercial activity that would certainly be negatively affected with an electoral campaign and its aftermath.

There would definitely be complaints from the business sector if Dr Gonzi were to choose December for an election, and the Nationalist Party would stand to lose if this was the case.

An election has been held in December – in 1981 – but those were different times for Malta.

Added to this, the only available date would be 15 December, considering that 1 December is out of the running (the Prime Minister would have had to call an election last Monday to be in time); 8 December is a public holiday and, although an election is still possible on that day, it is very unlikely that this will happen; and 22 December is too close to Christmas.

But even an election on 15 December would disrupt plans. The Prime Minister is due to take part in the European Union summit in Brussels during the preceding two days, and Queen Elizabeth’s visit to Malta next month would have to be cancelled too.

It is therefore probable that the election will be held next year, but even here it is still too early to say when.

It is highly probable that the election will be called soon after the end of the Christmas and New Year festivities. In the past years the Nationalist Party has stopped all its public political activities during the Christmas season. It would not be a surprise that, when Parliament reconvenes just after the recess, it is immediately dissolved and an election called for late February, or early March.

Again, there are a number of factors that point in this direction. The introduction of the euro on 1 January will no doubt play an important role in the decision that has to be taken by the Prime Minister.

The fact that an agreement has been reached for prices to remain as they are – except for the change in currency – until the end of March makes it clear that the election will be called before then, so that any real or perceived inflation due to the currency switch will not have an impact on the outcome.

By then, people would have also started to reap the benefits of the measures that were announced in the budget earlier this month. The feel-good factor that was created after the budget will probably last until then too, especially since the first pay-cheque including the wage increase – the Lm1.50 weekly rise plus the revision of the tax bands that will leave more money in the workers’ pockets – will be received at the end of January.

Since Independence, and especially after the budget, the Nationalist Party has gained a lot of ground. For a long period, the MLP seemed to have a great advantage over the party in government, but now this has whittled down.

From now onwards, both major political parties, and especially their leaders, must be extremely careful in the way they present themselves to the people and the way they react to statements from the opposing end.

The two sides are too close to each other for comfort, and as they normally say in these circumstances, every vote counts.