The Nationalist Party’s greatest fears for the forthcoming election is not the number of votes that the Malta Labour Party will be getting, but the number of votes that the PN will be losing to the smaller parties, Alternattiva Demokratika and Azzjoni Nazzjonali.

If the PN manages to control this number, then it stands a chance of winning a third consecutive term in office. If, on the other hand, traditional Nationalists will be voting for a third party – or not vote at all – then the PN runs the risk of losing the election, by default, to Labour.

It is a rather complex issue, and one that is not allowing the strategists at the PN headquarters in Pietà to sleep comfortably. This is because it will be hard for the PN to convince this group of voters that it is still the better party.

The PN knows that it is extremely hard to win three elections in a row. It has never happened. Labour did win in 1971, 1976 and 1981 – but the 1981 election was effectively a Nationalist victory. The PN then went on to win in 1987 and 1992, which would make it three effective wins, but only two “counted”.

The PN knows that a victory is even more difficult now because it has won four out of the last five elections (five out of six if the 1981 perverse result is include), meaning that another victory would leave it in government for 25 years except for a 22-month stint for Labour between 1996 and 1998.

Many of the young people who will be voting for the first time were not born in 1987, and will probably not remember Alfred Sant as Prime Minister too.

Recent surveys have shown that there are many people who think that the country needs a change of government, but they do not think that the MLP is a valid alternative.

The translation of this would be that these people will still vote Nationalist anyway, thinking that they are “the lesser of the two evils”, and possibly hope that in the next five years Labour will truly emerge as the party which could give the country a new beginning as from 2013.

On the other hand, they could also decide not to vote Nationalist, but neither Labour, and give their vote to the smaller parties, or else not vote at all. If this happens, it would mean that Labour stands a better chance of polling the highest number of votes.

And this is what is worrying the Nationalist Party the most.

The PN knows that it has taken the country forward in many aspects. It has won the battle for European Union membership, and the benefits of such a decision have started to be felt. The country’s economy is looking good, foreign investment is coming our way and employment is being created. Tourism has picked up again, the university and MCAST are bursting at the seams and the opening of the Mater Dei Hospital has given Malta top-notch health services.

Yet, the fact that the PN has been in government for so long works against it. And since there is no particular issue at stake – no EU membership, for example – it is clear that the chances of a PN defeat are greater.

This is why the PN is trying hard to portray itself as a party which still has the fresher ideas, with a leader that has not been in office for so long. This is why the PN is pushing the younger candidates more than it is doing with the seasoned ones. And this is why the PN repeatedly points out that Labour leader Alfred Sant has been at the helm of his party for 16 years and that he has already been tried and tested.

Whether this strategy will be successful is anyone’s guess.