Some time ago I promised a commentary, a district-by-district analysis, of the people standing for election. After all, I’m supposed to be a pundit, ain’t I? Just remember folks, psephology is not an exact science. Keep that in mind when you’re thinking of giving me a flaying after the results are out.

So, what are the broad issues that will determine the line-up of the Eleventh Parliament? First, that the Nationalist Party has a new leader who will not contest anywhere his predecessor stood in the last election. Second, the latest Constitutional amendments will, most likely, result in a Parliament of more than 65, possibly, the largest one to date (the latest amendments mean that additional “compensatory” seats are not only given to an “aggrieved” party as were the Nationalists in 1981 and 1987 and Labour in 1996, but probably to both in the process of rounding up of numbers).

Third, redistricting this time has been extensive, favouring Labour. Not only that, new boundaries cut across more traditional lines with some established MPs finding their former constituencies split. Some have tried to solve that by standing in two districts - there seems to be quite a few double candidatures this time round - but that, of course, risks spreading your resources too thinly. The biggest victim, I believe, will be the Nationalist front bench, which is why there are more predictions for Nationalist candidates: the Labour line up, I think, will not be radically changed.

So let’s go. In the First, nothing surprising except for Lawrence Gonzi’s decision not to contest the Valletta district, his place of origin. Austin Gatt and Mario de Marco heave a sigh of relief and split the spoils. On the Labour side, Joe Brincat who last time was certainly helped by the fact that he was Deputy Party Leader will be helped, this time, of the addition of part of Marsa and offer competition to Jose’ Herrera.

In the second, the first Nationalist frontbencher to face some risk: Frans Agius has his district split as Zabbar is made to form part of this district. On the Labour side, Joe Mizzi just managed to make it to Parliament at the expense of Rita Law; this time round with Michael Falzon they might both find themselves left behind.

Jesmond Mugliett may still be the best-looking Minister in the Nationalist Cabinet but he hasn’t been aging very nicely in the post of Roads Minister. Will he lose his seat to Nationalist General Council President Victor Scerri?

Get ready for another upset for a Nationalist frontbencher in the Fifth. Helen D’Amato was only elected in a casual election last time round thanks to Louis Galea being returned from two districts. This time round Galea is also standing in two districts but this time his second candidature is elsewhere where his chances are less and, even if he is successful in both, different rival candidates in the Sixth might mean that he’ll give up the Sixth rather than the Fifth.

In the Sixth expect a more level battle between Puli and Dalli. Expect the second seat to go to someone from Siggiewi. Musumeci? Or Louis Galea? In this district, it ought to be remembered, there’s St Vincent de Paule Residence, people who are outsiders and unfamiliar with “local” candidates. But they’re also old enough to remember Louis Galea from his General Secretary days.

Rabti u Zebbugi flimkien jaghmlu Lhudi. Always wondered what that expression meant and the big question mark in this election is the Seventh, which brings together for the first time Rabat and Zebbug as the largest localities. Both have Labour majorities and Labour has been paying particular attention to Zebbug in this campaign. Labour will miss Frank Fabri, the former up and coming Rabat mayor, in the District where a Nationalist seat is most at risk. Expect David Agius and Jeffrey Pullicino-Orlando to be returned as MPs from this district although the fact that Pullicino-Orlando hails from Zebbug gives him some more edge.

The Eighth is where the names of three Party leaders used to appear on the ballot paper. This is no longer be the case for the Nationalist Party even though there will be a “Fenech-Adami” to vote for. Expect Tonio Fenech to be returned more handily and Tonio Borg less so. For Labour, in having to choose between Herrera/Brincat in the First and Debono-Grech here, Sant might go for the first choice leave the veteran MP out of Parliament for the first time in three decades.

Lawrence Gonzi will be standing in the Ninth. This is a district with many double candidatures in the Tenth and the more-established candidates might make it. But like last time, expect also some new faces that make it through casual elections.

Evarist Bartolo has lost some of the lustre he had when he was returned from the Tenth in 1992 and this time there’s also Michael Falzon. But the Tenth is a district where the Nationalists risk losing a seat. Expect Arrigo to do strongly here, as well as the highest-profile victim of this election: Michael Frendo. George Pullicino may be running a lower risk but if Gonzi is PM again he might not only be looking around to fill the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The Eleventh is another strange district albeit not as much as the Seventh. Mosta may be large but Attard and Balzan are much more strongly Nationalist (and Mosta went to Labour in its last election for the local council). Expect Mosta MPs - Louis Deguara and Edwin Vassallo - to be affected by the crowded list of new and strong contenders. Lots of double candidatures here too, which increases risks as well, as it gives more (undue) importance to the letter of the alphabet your name starts with.

The Twelfth will resemble the Eleventh in many ways. No surprises for Labour and some unpredictability for the Nationalists due to redistricting (and putting together some strong candidates who formerly stood on opposite sides of the border) and double candidatures.

Gozo sees some significant changes. Justyne Caruana, who last time made it probably only to the fact that “Caruana” comes before “Cordina” might find her position strengthened. Anton Tabone vacates his seat. Although his son, Robert, is standing, the candidate to watch out for is Chris Said, the Nadur mayor and one of the Nationalists’ best politicians at local level.

More predictions? Turnout will be high (although not as high as 2003 despite some 20,000 more voters). Ah, and no seats for anyone other than Nationalist or Labour. But then that one’s easy to make.

‘Fausto Majjistral’

(malta9thermidor.blogspot.com)