It was to be expected that Silvio Berlusconi and his centre-right coalition would have emerged victorious in the general election held in Italy on Sunday and Monday. Whether the Italians chose the lesser of two evils is a difficult question to answer.
What was not expected was the large margin with which the Popolo della Libertà overcame the Partito Democratico, considering that two years ago the centre-left led by Romano Prodi had won by a few thousand votes.
Italians were disappointed by Berlusconi when he was Prime Minister, but it seems that they were disappointed more by Prodi, and in the end chose to give the media mogul another chance.
Berlusconi did not have a good record as Prime Minister. Italy’s economy, the seventh largest in the world, failed to make the jump that is necessary to give the country a boost it needs so much. But the billionaire had managed to hold on to power in a government that lasted the whole legislature, a major feat in a nation which has had nearly one government for each and every year, on average, since World War II.
The Italians must have considered this form of stability when they cast their preferences. Prodi had led a weak coalition that was doomed to collapse sooner or later, and in fact it did so less than two years after he had taken over. Prodi failed to reform labour laws or liberalise the market, and also seemed helpless in view of crises that hit Italy, the most notorious of which was the waste management problems in Naples.
The way Berlusconi has won the election – with comfortable wins in both the lower house and the senate – should pave the way for another five-year term Berlusconi vows he will bring to an end, although whether he will manage is always a big question mark in Italy.
The election loser, Walter Veltroni, has already started pressuring the winning coalition, saying that the “majority will have a hard time keeping together things that are difficult to keep together”. Time will tell whether Veltroni is correct.
Berlusconi has promised to take Italy forward by reducing taxes. He aims to re-start projects that Prodi’s government cancelled, including the bridge over the Messina Strait. How he will be doing it is another matter, as he has not given real answers on how he intends to finance his plans.
There are other aspects of the election outcome that are worth considering. For one thing, the convincing majority won by Berlusconi came with much help from the Northern League which, in 1994, had caused Berlusconi’s first government to collapse.
What is also true is that the election brought about with it a significant change in the way politics will, from now onwards, be done in Italy. For one thing, the results dealt a severe blow to the smaller parties, very often the cause of political differences and defeats for the government in the past.
The number of parties to be represented in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house, will drop from 26 to just six. For the first time since World War II, the Communist Party will not have a seat in Parliament.
This has opened the way for a kind of duopoly that already existed in the past, but which will come out stronger following the results of the election. This will simplify matters in the Italian political panorama, but one has to see whether this will lead to better governing and a faster implementation of government ideas.
Berlusconi might be heading towards an easy ride over the next five years, given the strength of his majority. Berlusconi’s success will however not only be gauged with his ability to last the whole term, but with what he will do to lift Italy out of the difficulties that it has encountered over many years.