The survey carried out by The Malta Independent opinion writer Alfred Mifsud, which was published in this newspaper last Friday, allows for much food for thought.
The survey must be read with caution “in that (such surveys) carry a wide margin of error” – Mr Mifsud’s words – but at the same time it does give a clear indication as to what the people are thinking about the race for the post of Malta Labour Party leader.
From the survey it is immediately evident that Evarist Bartolo and Marie Louise Coleiro do not seem to enjoy a lot of backing. Their support across the board, according to the survey, is too limited for them to make an impact.
Joseph Muscat has an overwhelming support, within the Labour core, while George Abela and Michael Falzon share, almost equally, 20 per cent of support among Laour voters.
Yet, what is most significant in the survey is not whether Dr Abela, Mr Bartolo, Notary Coleiro-Preca, Dr Falzon and Dr Muscat have a chance to be elected MLP leader. It is who is backing who that really stands out from the survey, and this is what Labour delegates must think about before they cast their preference on 5 June.
For example, Joseph Muscat is supported by nearly two-thirds of survey participants who voted Labour, but got only 21 per cent of preferences from floating voters and 17 per cent from PN voters. On the other hand, George Abela is the preferred choice of 40 per cent of PN voters and 45 per cent of floating voters, while only 10.7 per cent of those who voted Labour want him as head of their party.
Among those who did not want to say who they voted for, whom Mr Mifsud called the decliners, Dr Muscat is the preferred candidate with 43 per cent, while Dr Abela is the favourite among 23 per cent.
For his part, Dr Falzon is in the same boat with Dr Abela when it comes to Labour voters, is the second favourite among PN voters and earns little support from the floating voters and the decliners.
It is therefore evident that while Dr Muscat enjoys the backing of the hard-core Labour supporters, who have always voted Labour and will continue to do so no matter what and whoever is the leader, Dr Abela has more support among the floating voters, those who ultimately decide which party wins an election.
Yes, Dr Muscat has the support of 43 per cent of the decliners as against Dr Abela’s 23 per cent, but Mr Mifsud said that these are “generally considered as Labour people who refuse to disclose their voting preferences”, which in a way confirms that Dr Muscat enjoys support in the Labour core but not among the floating voters and those who voted PN.
The so-called floating voters in the last election in all probability voted PN or did not vote at all because they would never vote Labour – and this is why the MLP delegates who will vote for the party’s new leader must look beyond the inner walls of the Centru Nazzjonali Laburista.
What Mr Mifsud’s survey is saying, not so subtly, is that the MLP delegates must understand that if they choose a leader who is appealing to only the Labour fold, they run the risk of a repeat performance of the 2008 election and the people will “vote it yet again in opposition right until 2018”.
This is because, ultimately, Labour’s core base will more or less remain the same – and unless the party attracts the floating voters and persuades those who did not vote in 2008 to give it a chance, then it will yet again be hard for Labour to win the election.